Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE AREA OVER NE FL IS THE
INLAND MOVING WEST COAST SEABREEZE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY NEAR EAST COAST AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE FRONT WHICH WILL NOT MOVE TOO FAR INLAND LIKE PREVIOUS
EVENINGS. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO SE GA WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AIRMASS IS STILL DRY IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS TO FORECAST AS
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BY STORMS WILL AID IN PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE COLLISIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID/UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS TROUGH ENHANCING THE SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE THE CONVECTION
FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EAST COAST AND COLLIDE WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE LATE AFTN
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WET DOWNBURSTS AND MINOR DAMAGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WHILE MID LEVEL
HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL PUSH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH. PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOWS RIDING NEWD ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER LOCAL AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK. WILL
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS BEFORE ALTERING THE
CURRENT POPS OR TEMPS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TEMPO IN GNV AND VQQ TAFS TIL 21Z WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. VCTS
AT CRG...JAX...AND SSI BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO TEMPO AS
STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH. NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PRODUCE
SCEC CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  20
SSI  77  91  77  91 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  73  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  30
SGJ  74  90  75  91 /  20  30  30  30
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  73  92  72  94 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ZIBURA/WALKER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ021-022-035-036-142100-
ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-SUWANNEE-
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN GILCHRIST AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 420 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT WHITE...OR 4 MILES
SOUTH OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ICHETUCKNEE
SPRINGS STATE PARK...HILDRETH...FORT WHITE...HIGH SPRINGS AND OLENO
STATE PARK THROUGH 500 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 3007 8263 2983 8252 2980 8285 2995 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 257DEG 18KT 2990 8274

NELSON

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