Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE AREA OVER NE FL IS THE
INLAND MOVING WEST COAST SEABREEZE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY NEAR EAST COAST AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE FRONT WHICH WILL NOT MOVE TOO FAR INLAND LIKE PREVIOUS
EVENINGS. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO SE GA WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AIRMASS IS STILL DRY IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO
BE SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS TO FORECAST AS
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BY STORMS WILL AID IN PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE COLLISIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID/UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS TROUGH ENHANCING THE SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE THE CONVECTION
FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EAST COAST AND COLLIDE WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE LATE AFTN
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WET DOWNBURSTS AND MINOR DAMAGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WHILE MID LEVEL
HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL PUSH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH. PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOWS RIDING NEWD ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER LOCAL AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK. WILL
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS BEFORE ALTERING THE
CURRENT POPS OR TEMPS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TEMPO IN GNV AND VQQ TAFS TIL 21Z WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. VCTS
AT CRG...JAX...AND SSI BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO TEMPO AS
STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH. NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PRODUCE
SCEC CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  20
SSI  77  91  77  91 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  73  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  30
SGJ  74  90  75  91 /  20  30  30  30
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  73  92  72  94 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ZIBURA/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1054 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1054 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC
WATERS BY EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND MORE
NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ020>022-142015-
COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
325 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SUWANNEE SPRINGS TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCALPIN TO 15 MILES WEST
OF BRANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LIVE OAK...SUWANNEE SPRINGS...MCALPIN...
MCALPIN...HOUSTON...OBRIEN...WELLBORN...BRANFORD AND WHITE SPRINGS
THROUGH 415 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3019 8310 3044 8306 3052 8273 3014 8272
      2992 8289 2993 8293 2995 8293 2996 8296
      2999 8297 3000 8300 3008 8308 3010 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 282DEG 20KT 3042 8297 3017 8299
          2994 8315

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ025-033-142045-
DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
353 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ST.
JOHNS AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURBIN...OR 8 MILES EAST
OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PONTE VEDRA BEACH...PALM
VALLEY...DURBIN...BAYARD...SAWGRASS...GUANA RIVER STATE PARK AND
SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH THROUGH 445 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2988 8133 3001 8161 3025 8150 3025 8137
      3002 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 299DEG 14KT 3006 8148

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ038-142030-
FLAGLER-
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN FLAGLER
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLAGLER BEACH...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND PALM COAST...BUNNELL AND FLAGLER BEACH THROUGH 430 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2941 8114 2939 8115 2934 8124 2961 8134
      2966 8120 2944 8110 2943 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 252DEG 19KT 2950 8116

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
414 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW FRUIT COVE        30.15N 81.63W
08/14/2012                   DUVAL              FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS A LARGE TREE DOWN ON SAN
            JOSE BOULEVARD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ORANGE PICKER
            ROAD IN EAST MANDARIN. TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON RADAR
            DATA.

&&

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ021-022-035-036-142100-
ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-SUWANNEE-
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN GILCHRIST AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 420 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT WHITE...OR 4 MILES
SOUTH OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ICHETUCKNEE
SPRINGS STATE PARK...HILDRETH...FORT WHITE...HIGH SPRINGS AND OLENO
STATE PARK THROUGH 500 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 3007 8263 2983 8252 2980 8285 2995 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 257DEG 18KT 2990 8274

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ024-025-142045-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
421 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
DUVAL AND EXTREME EASTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 422 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER FORT CAROLINE...OR 6 MILES WEST OF
MAYPORT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND FORT CAROLINE...TALBOT ISLAND...LITTLE TALBOT
ISLAND AND MAYPORT THROUGH 445 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3036 8158 3050 8157 3056 8144 3054 8142
      3052 8142 3051 8144 3049 8141 3043 8140
      3041 8140 3039 8139 3034 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 271DEG 14KT 3041 8148

NELSON