Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...

TODAY...DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ALREADY SEEING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND FL BIG BEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

RESULT WILL BE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH HEATING AND SEABREEZES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING ACROSS SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS TODAY. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 2 INCHES
(DUE TO HIGH PW) WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. MAX TEMPS HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
CLOUD COVER/PCP AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS MET GUIDANCE AND STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO
VALUES.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CNTL FL
PENINSULA WHILE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKENS BUT
STILL LINGERS IN THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW FLOW
BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZES. THE SW STEERING FLOW WILL
ALSO FAVOR LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS INLAND SE
GA AND NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LINGERING STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. WILL GO HIGH END SCATTERED POPS
ALL AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA GETS SHUNTED SOUTH
AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS SE INTO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW AND CONTINUATION OF HIGH END SCATTERED
POPS SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE DECREASES SOME SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS. TEMPS RUNNING AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALTHOUGH
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND SUNRISE. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP AT LOCAL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDS IN TSTM ACTIVITY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. NOCTURNAL S/SW SURGES
CLOSE AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES WITH THE OFFSHORE S/SW FLOW AND
SWELLS REMAINING AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  73  91  73 /  70  40  40  40
SSI  88  76  89  77 /  60  50  40  40
JAX  90  74  91  74 /  60  30  50  40
SGJ  90  75  89  75 /  60  30  40  40
GNV  90  73  90  73 /  60  30  40  40
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL
GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
416 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPPER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ132-149-080830-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON AND
COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 430 AM
EDT...

AT 328 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
AMBROSE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF WILLACOOCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WILLACOOCHEE...AMBROSE...PEARSON...DOUGLAS...BROXTON...AXSON AND WEST
GREEN THROUGH 430 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3152 8309 3161 8306 3164 8302 3169 8300
      3170 8284 3167 8284 3167 8271 3167 8270
      3129 8266 3128 8270 3123 8270 3119 8267
      3118 8304 3127 8304 3133 8307 3140 8314
      3147 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 267DEG 15KT 3160 8305 3123 8301

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
612 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ136-151-152-081100-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WAYNE-
612 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
WAYNE...SOUTHERN PIERCE AND NORTHERN BRANTLEY COUNTIES FOR EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 612 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF BLACKSHEAR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HOBOKEN...BLACKSHEAR...PATTERSON...RAYBON...HORTENSE...
BROADHURST AND GARDI THROUGH 700 AM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3159 8182 3140 8168 3137 8171 3113 8221
      3117 8221 3117 8223 3119 8227 3121 8229
      3122 8228 3123 8230 3128 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 238DEG 26KT 3126 8218

HESS