Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER
EVENING KJAX SOUNDING EXPLAINS THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
PERSISTED INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND
DOWN AND BECOME ISOLATED BY 11 PM. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WILL COVER THIS WITH
20-30 POPS AND SHOW THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR VSBY/CIGS FOR JAX TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z/04Z AS REMNANT SHOWERS/ISOLD T-STORM MOVE ENEWD
THROUGH DUVAL COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BUT RIGHT NOW
PROBABILITIES ARE INSUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY PREVAILING SHOWERS OR A
TEMPO GROUP. A REPEAT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON
WED (MAINLY AFTN HOURS) AND COVERED THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR
NOW...EXCEPT FOR GNV WITH VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE SLY AT ABOUT 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWF UPDATE. MAIN CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...MAINLY AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK LIKELY CONTINUING INTO WED DUE TO PREVAILING
OFFSHORE WIND AND ESE SWELLS OF ABOUT 1.5 FT AT 9 SECONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  88  72  92 /  30  70  40  40
SSI  77  88  76  89 /  20  60  40  50
JAX  73  90  73  92 /  30  60  40  50
SGJ  75  90  74  90 /  60  60  30  40
GNV  72  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  50
OCF  72  90  72  92 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-090230-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE RISK WILL
INITIALLY FOCUS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE EVENING AND
THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ132-149-080830-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON AND
COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 430 AM
EDT...

AT 328 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
AMBROSE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF WILLACOOCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WILLACOOCHEE...AMBROSE...PEARSON...DOUGLAS...BROXTON...AXSON AND WEST
GREEN THROUGH 430 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3152 8309 3161 8306 3164 8302 3169 8300
      3170 8284 3167 8284 3167 8271 3167 8270
      3129 8266 3128 8270 3123 8270 3119 8267
      3118 8304 3127 8304 3133 8307 3140 8314
      3147 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 267DEG 15KT 3160 8305 3123 8301

HESS