Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A NICE JUICY ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL
500MB TEMPS AT -7C/-8C. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
AND VORTICITY SPOKES OF ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 15-20 MPH
WITH SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALWAYS POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY EARLIER
START TO THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S
WHILE SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD FADE A BIT AFTER SUNSET WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLC AND
NORTHEAST GOMEX.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THEN WITH
SCTD/NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO TAF LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TEMPO GROUPS...MAINLY AFTER 18Z
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER 01Z/02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL SWLY FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGE AROUND 15
KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: A GENERAL LOW RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW OUTWEIGHING ANY LINGERING 2 FEET EASTERLY SWELLS PUSHING
ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  94  73 /  60  30  60  40
SSI  89  75  90  77 /  60  40  50  40
JAX  91  74  92  75 /  60  40  60  40
SGJ  90  74  92  75 /  60  40  40  30
GNV  92  71  93  72 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  92  72  92  73 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/CHASE

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