Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS
WITH LESS COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS
INLAND...WITH SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
488 CONTINUES FOR INLAND SE GA/NE FL UNTIL 8 PM. OUTSIDE THE
WATCH...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH MOST INLAND AREAS DRY BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL NUDGE WESTWARD ACROSS INLAND
NORTHERN FL. WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SW FLOW...AND THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE COLLIDING
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WHICH WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. WILL USE HIGH END SCATTERED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER
SW FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN UNITED STATES
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...WITH POPS
TAPERING OFF AS YOU GO SOUTH TOWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ACROSS GEORGIA DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SOUTH OF I-10. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE. LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE HEAT
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DRY
AIR...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN
THIS DIRECTION JUST YET...BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WILL
NEED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ANY EVENT...HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GNV...VQQ...AND JAX HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC UNDER GENERAL S/SW FLOW.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 15 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR LESS...WITH AN ELY SWELL 2-3 FT
PERSISTING OVER THE FEW DAYS.

.RIP CURRENT RISK...MODERATE RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  73  94 /  40  50  40  50
SSI  76  90  77  90 /  20  70  70  60
JAX  71  94  74  94 /  30  60  60  60
SGJ  73  91  75  92 /  20  60  60  60
GNV  71  93  73  94 /  50  50  40  60
OCF  70  94  73  93 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/ALLEN/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180830-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BECOMING NUMEROUS NEAR THE EAST COAST AS THE SEABREEZE
FRONTS COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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