Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS
WITH LESS COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS
INLAND...WITH SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
488 CONTINUES FOR INLAND SE GA/NE FL UNTIL 8 PM. OUTSIDE THE
WATCH...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH MOST INLAND AREAS DRY BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL NUDGE WESTWARD ACROSS INLAND
NORTHERN FL. WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SW FLOW...AND THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE COLLIDING
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WHICH WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. WILL USE HIGH END SCATTERED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER
SW FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN UNITED STATES
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...WITH POPS
TAPERING OFF AS YOU GO SOUTH TOWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ACROSS GEORGIA DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SOUTH OF I-10. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE. LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE HEAT
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DRY
AIR...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN
THIS DIRECTION JUST YET...BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WILL
NEED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ANY EVENT...HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GNV...VQQ...AND JAX HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC UNDER GENERAL S/SW FLOW.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 15 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR LESS...WITH AN ELY SWELL 2-3 FT
PERSISTING OVER THE FEW DAYS.

.RIP CURRENT RISK...MODERATE RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  73  94 /  40  50  40  50
SSI  76  90  77  90 /  20  70  70  60
JAX  71  94  74  94 /  30  60  60  60
SGJ  73  91  75  92 /  20  60  60  60
GNV  71  93  73  94 /  50  50  40  60
OCF  70  94  73  93 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/ALLEN/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180830-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BECOMING NUMEROUS NEAR THE EAST COAST AS THE SEABREEZE
FRONTS COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

GAZ135-171800-
APPLING-
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPLING COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 109 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN APPLING COUNTY...
ONE OVER PLANT HATCH...AND ANOTHER 5 MILES NORTH OF PINE GROVE...
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AT 5 MPH. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3196 8241 3196 8237 3194 8233 3194 8228
      3191 8222 3190 8218 3167 8220 3176 8252
      3184 8252 3184 8243 3197 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 026DEG 2KT 3188 8238

WOLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FLZ040-171800-
MARION-
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 118 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY...SHOWING LITTLE
MOVEMENT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND WEIRSDALE...
SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...OCKLAWAHA...MOSS BLUFF...LAKE WEIR...
SUMMERFIELD...SANTOS AND BELLEVIEW THROUGH 200 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM
MOTION...THIS CAN RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 2900 8238 2912 8240 2916 8164 2905 8164
      2904 8165 2896 8166 2895 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 090DEG 1KT 2901 8201

WOLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

GAZ132-171815-
COFFEE-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 215
PM EDT...

AT 137 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST NORTH OF WEST
GREEN. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3166 8300 3167 8262 3153 8263 3141 8279
      3142 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 016DEG 3KT 3154 8294

WOLF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>