Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
948 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.UPDATE...

WITH FORECAST TRACK OF DEBBY...EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF WAYCROSS.
GIVEN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...RUNNING THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TUESDAY. RELIED HEAVILY ON HPC QPF AMOUNTS THIS UPDATE.

ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERE...INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING MVFR EXPECTED AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ WITH TEMPO IFR
IN HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE. IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO LIFR TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT GNV...AND GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER WINDS NEAR DEBBY
CIRCULATION INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AROUND 04Z WITH
35 KTS AROUND 1.5KFT. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. THE RISK MAY
BECOME HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  75  88 /  80  60  30  40
SSI  76  87  75  84 /  80  60  50  40
JAX  73  89  76  85 / 100  60  60  50
SGJ  76  87  75  85 / 100  70  60  50
GNV  74  87  74  88 / 100  60  60  60
OCF  73  87  76  88 / 100  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GILCHRIST-SUWANNEE.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-WARE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

STRUBLE/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1040 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1040 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH 5 AM...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AS TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...ISOLATED CELLS COULD ROTATE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND THUS THERE IS A POSSIBILTY
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IF STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP.

ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT LOCAL BEACHES.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AS BANDS OF RAIN
PIVOT AROUND TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK.

ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
923 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ040-250200-
MARION-
923 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 922 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY
SHOWERS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES WEST OF ROMEO
TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUNNELLON TO 29 MILES SOUTH OF
DUNNELLON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THESE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND DUNNELLON...RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...ROMEO AND
OCALA AIRPORT THROUGH 1000 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2900 8237 2901 8241 2901 8242 2904 8247
      2903 8252 2905 8254 2921 8254 2922 8241
      2940 8241 2934 8228 2896 8204 2895 8204
      2895 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 199DEG 25KT 2930 8276 2904 8240
          2868 8226

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
953 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SE FLAGLER BEACH      29.46N 81.12W
06/24/2012                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A POWER LINE DOWN ON SOUTH
            CENTRAL AVENUE IN FLAGLER BEACH.

0932 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NNE BUNNELL           29.51N 81.23W
06/24/2012                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES
            ON RAMBLEWOOD DR IN PALM COAST.

&&

SPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1029 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ022-031-035-036-040-250315-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-MARION-
1029 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
BRADFORD...ALACHUA...SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST AND NORTHERN
MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 1115
PM EDT...

AT 1029 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF TRENTON TO 14 MILES WEST OF
MICANOPY TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANTHONY...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ANTHONY...TRENTON...SPARR...MCINTOSH...CITRA...NEWBERRY...MICANOPY...
CROSS CREEK...BELL AND LOCHLOOSA THROUGH 1115 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2964 8296 2967 8296 2990 8285 2994 8205
      2924 8206 2954 8238 2953 8265 2956 8266
      2955 8276 2958 8278 2959 8297 2963 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 199DEG 37KT 2965 8289 2948 8248
          2932 8206

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ036-040-250345-
ALACHUA-MARION-
1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA AND MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1100 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
OCALA  AIRPORT...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCALA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
SUMMERFIELD...ROMEO...RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...SANTOS...OCALA
AIRPORT...BELLEVIEW...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...OCALA...LYNNE AND
REDDICK THROUGH 1145 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2909 8251 2922 8247 2922 8241 2944 8242
      2948 8240 2934 8175 2896 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 207DEG 33KT 2911 8223

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1115 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ036-037-040-250400-
ALACHUA-MARION-PUTNAM-
1115 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALACHUA...WESTERN PUTNAM AND WESTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1116 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER OCALA AIRPORT...OR 5 MILES WEST OF
OCALA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCALA AIRPORT...OCALA...ANTHONY...LOWELL...
SPARR...REDDICK...FLEMINGTON...CITRA...MCINTOSH AND MICANOPY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2965 8238 2966 8186 2898 8216 2903 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 193DEG 32KT 2920 8221

HESS

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