Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS SE GA AND NEAR THE FL/GA
BORDER AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE E/SE AT 10 MPH. SOME OF STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. MAX TEMPS HAVE SURGED WELL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE 50S...SO STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE REGION TO KEEP
MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE LACK OF HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO JUST
ISOLD/SCTD ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TRAINING CELLS BUT
WITH ONGOING DROUGHT NOT TOO MUCH CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

MONDAY...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT COMBINE WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL SBRZ BOUNDARIES FIRING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENHANCED BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AT E/NE 15 MPH WILL
HELP WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAND AREAS AND BOOST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 80S
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT AIDING IN
POSSIBLE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE/WED...GENERAL TROFINESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGH LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXED WITH LOCAL SBRZ DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL REDUCE PCPN CHANCES TO ISOLD/SCTD THEN
BECOMING MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON
FRI/SAT...THEN A RETURN TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE JACKSONVILLE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN JACKSONVILLE IS BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL WIND
DOWN THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT GNV AND VQQ.

WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT
THE TERMINALS ON MONDAY...THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE PROB30
GROUPS BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRESS SOUTH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY
SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TURNING BACK TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON MONDAY DUE TO LONG
FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  83  64  86 /  50  80  50  60
SSI  70  79  69  81 /  40  70  50  60
JAX  66  83  65  85 /  50  70  50  70
SGJ  69  81  67  83 /  30  60  50  60
GNV  64  86  64  87 /  20  70  70  70
OCF  65  88  65  87 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE COUNTY LINE AND BALDWIN BAY WILDFIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH
BAKER...CHARLTON...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED DOWNWIND OF THE
WILDFIRE LOCATIONS.

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
ALTHOUGH ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SOME STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE HAZARD...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASED ONSHORE WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLZ020-021-062115-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
HAMILTON AND NORTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST LAKE...OR 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JENNINGS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JENNINGS...WEST LAKE...
BLUE SPRINGS AND SUWANNEE RIVER STATE PARK THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3062 8307 3042 8300 3037 8319
      3041 8318 3042 8323 3046 8323 3047 8325
      3052 8325 3055 8326 3061 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 351DEG 4KT 3053 8317

PRESNALL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
441 PM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             CALLAHAN                30.56N 81.83W
05/06/2012  E0.50 INCH       NASSAU             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            PUBLIC REPORT OF MARBLE SIZE HAIL IN CALLAHAN.

&&

JHESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
447 PM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     LIGHTNING        5 WSW KINGSLAND         30.77N 81.74W
05/06/2012                   CAMDEN             GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            33 COONER RD, KINGSLAND, GA SMALL FIRE FROM LIGHTNING
            STRIKE WOODED AREA

&&

AWALKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLZ024-025-062130-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
453 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN DUVAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 453 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OCEANWAY TO 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF BRYCEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCEANWAY...RATLIFF...
JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BRYCEVILLE...TALLYRAND...
BALDWIN...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE...NORMANDY AND DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE
THROUGH 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3021 8157 3019 8204 3049 8202 3054 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 350DEG 17KT 3045 8166 3041 8198

TRABERT