Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Jacksonville, FL

764 
WWUS52 KJAX 062029
SVSJAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLC023-062045-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-120506T2045Z/
COLUMBIA FL-
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3059 8263 3059 8256 3059 8251 3046 8247
      3047 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 005DEG 6KT 3054 8257

$$

PRESNALL

669 
WWUS52 KJAX 062040
SVSJAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLC023-062050-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-120506T2045Z/
COLUMBIA FL-
440 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3059 8263 3059 8256 3059 8251 3046 8247
      3047 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 005DEG 6KT 3052 8257

$$

PRESNALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS SE GA AND NEAR THE FL/GA
BORDER AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE E/SE AT 10 MPH. SOME OF STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. MAX TEMPS HAVE SURGED WELL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE 50S...SO STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE REGION TO KEEP
MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE LACK OF HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO JUST
ISOLD/SCTD ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TRAINING CELLS BUT
WITH ONGOING DROUGHT NOT TOO MUCH CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

MONDAY...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT COMBINE WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL SBRZ BOUNDARIES FIRING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENHANCED BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AT E/NE 15 MPH WILL
HELP WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAND AREAS AND BOOST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 80S
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT AIDING IN
POSSIBLE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE/WED...GENERAL TROFINESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGH LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXED WITH LOCAL SBRZ DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL REDUCE PCPN CHANCES TO ISOLD/SCTD THEN
BECOMING MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON
FRI/SAT...THEN A RETURN TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE JACKSONVILLE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN JACKSONVILLE IS BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL WIND
DOWN THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT GNV AND VQQ.

WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT
THE TERMINALS ON MONDAY...THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE PROB30
GROUPS BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRESS SOUTH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY
SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TURNING BACK TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON MONDAY DUE TO LONG
FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  83  64  86 /  50  80  50  60
SSI  70  79  69  81 /  40  70  50  60
JAX  66  83  65  85 /  50  70  50  70
SGJ  69  81  67  83 /  30  60  50  60
GNV  64  86  64  87 /  20  70  70  70
OCF  65  88  65  87 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE COUNTY LINE AND BALDWIN BAY WILDFIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH
BAKER...CHARLTON...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED DOWNWIND OF THE
WILDFIRE LOCATIONS.

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
ALTHOUGH ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SOME STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE HAZARD...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASED ONSHORE WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLZ024-025-062000-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
322 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN DUVAL
AND EASTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
FERNANDINA BEACH TO 9 MILES WEST OF YULEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
YULEE...FERNANDINA BEACH AND AMELIA CITY THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP
TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3067 8142 3064 8142 3060 8144 3056 8144
      3053 8142 3052 8143 3049 8175 3064 8186
      3070 8145 3068 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 317DEG 7KT 3066 8149 3063 8172

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLZ024-GAZ165-166-062000-
COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAMDEN
AND NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 330 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER NASSAU COUNTY...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3069 8151 3065 8179 3073 8184 3083 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 315DEG 16KT 3072 8171

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLZ022-023-GAZ150-162-163-062030-
BAKER-CLINCH-COLUMBIA-ECHOLS-WARE-
344 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ECHOLS...
NORTHWESTERN BAKER AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND FARGO THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3072 8259 3070 8233 3041 8231 3043 8265
      3045 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 006DEG 10KT 3059 8247

PRESNALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

GAZ163-062045-
CLINCH-
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLINCH COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 12 MILES WEST OF COGDELL...OR 11 MILES
SOUTH OF PEARSON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HOMERVILLE AND COGDELL THROUGH 445 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3119 8296 3118 8270 3100 8275 3108 8298
      3118 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 286DEG 6KT 3114 8292

PRESNALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
407 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FLZ024-025-062100-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
407 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN DUVAL
AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO 3 MILES WEST OF CALLAHAN...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND CALLAHAN...RATLIFF...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT AND BRYCEVILLE THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3035 8168 3038 8203 3059 8195 3060 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 037DEG 10KT 3055 8167 3055 8190

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

GAZ164-165-062045-
CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
413 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON AND WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF
HOMELAND TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOMELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HOMELAND THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3099 8209 3099 8181 3085 8175 3084 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 294DEG 9KT 3095 8201 3093 8184

TRABERT