Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BASICALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AND EXPECT THE
MORE SCATTERED VARIETY AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT STRONG TSTM WORDING IN
THE ZFP/GRIDS FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...ONCE TROF AXIS CLEARS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT ALL PCPN
WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE WRN ATLC AND EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP DUE TO COMBINATION OF MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. MIN TEMPS REMAIN MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

SUNDAY...WEAK FRONTAL/TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AND EXPECT DRIER AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST
AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH JUST SILENT
10% POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPS PUSH UPWARDS TO AROUND
90 DEGREES OVER SOME INLAND AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS IN
THE 20-30% RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE TEMPO THUNDER/IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS IN TAFS TIL 00Z
AS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR ONE MORE FORECAST PACKAGE.
THEN WINDS WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS TROF AXIS SLIDES THROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE RE-BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 2-3 FT OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOONS AROUND 35 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY AT 10 MPH OR LESS WHILE WEST WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ACROSS NE FL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2012 STILL ON TRACK TO GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT
ALMA AND ST SIMONS ISLAND ACROSS SE GA...WHILE BOTH GAINESVILLE AND
JACKSONVILLE WILL END UP RANKED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 WARMEST
ON RECORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  88  61  90 /  20   0   0  10
SSI  62  81  65  85 /  50   0   0  10
JAX  60  86  61  88 /  60   0   0  10
SGJ  64  81  64  84 /  50   0   0  10
GNV  60  87  61  86 /  50   0   0  10
OCF  61  88  60  89 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011100-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
323 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR AM...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE ST. AUGUSTINE      29.86N 81.26W
03/31/2012  M49 MPH          AMZ454             FL   C-MAN STATION

            THE CMAN SITE AT THE ST AUGUSTINE PIER MEASURED A GUST TO
            49 MPH.

&&

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ020>023-GAZ150-163-164-311900-
BAKER-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-WARE-
231 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH...NORTHWESTERN BAKER...NORTHERN
COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...EASTERN SUWANNEE AND CENTRAL
CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23
MILES NORTH OF TAYLOR TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIVE OAK...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND LIVE
OAK...BELMONT...WHITE SPRINGS...HOUSTON...SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WINFIELD...FIVE POINTS AND TAYLOR THROUGH 300 PM EDT. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3027 8303 3060 8262 3059 8259 3063 8258
      3086 8229 3076 8204 3061 8206 3020 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 288DEG 27KT 3077 8226 3026 8292

SHASHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W
03/31/2012  E0.25 INCH       FLAGLER            FL   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL OBSERVED IN WEST FLAGLER BEACH.

&&

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
258 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ024-GAZ164-311930-
CHARLTON-NASSAU-
258 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
CHARLTON AND NORTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR GUSTY WINDS VALID
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF HILLIARD...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH. A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND HILLIARD AND
CALLAHAN THROUGH 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO NEAR 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3053 8176 3059 8217 3081 8209 3074 8165
      3073 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 277DEG 25KT 3071 8199

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ023>025-GAZ164-312030-
BAKER-CHARLTON-DUVAL-NASSAU-
344 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
BAKER...SOUTHERN CHARLTON...NORTHWESTERN DUVAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF BRYCEVILLE...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CALLAHAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRYCEVILLE...RATLIFF...
TALLYRAND...OCEANWAY AND JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH
430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3059 8166 3034 8161 3030 8215 3047 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 260DEG 25KT 3040 8206

SHASHY