Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NE FL AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST APPROACHES THE AREA. ACTIVITY IS STRONG BUT NOT SEVERE AS
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO FAR. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HEATING
AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE AXIS
REACHES EAST COAST AROUND 00Z. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL
COVERED SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH VQQ AND JAX TAFS BY 15Z WITH
THUNDER LIKELY AT GNV AND SSI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
STORMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOYS NOW REPORTING SW WINDS IN 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE...AND AROUND
15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WILL
CONTINUE SCEC HEADLINE FOR OFFSHORE ZONES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  58  86  60 /  80  10  10  10
SSI  77  61  79  63 /  70  20  10  10
JAX  80  60  86  61 /  70  20  10  10
SGJ  80  63  83  64 /  60  20  10  10
GNV  80  59  87  59 /  70  20  10  10
OCF  82  61  86  60 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZIBURA/HESS/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-010845-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
439 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA....SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE EAST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1117 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ022>024-GAZ150-164-311545-
BAKER-CHARLTON-COLUMBIA-NASSAU-WARE-
1117 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...BAKER...CENTRAL COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND WESTERN
NASSAU COUNTIES FOR SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL
1145 AM EDT...

AT 1117 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ST. GEORGE TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLUSTEE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WATERTOWN...LAKE CITY...FIVE POINTS...OLUSTEE...TAYLOR...
SANDERSON...MACCLENNY...HILLIARD...GLEN SAINT MARY AND CALLAHAN
THROUGH 1145 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3040 8190 3028 8205 3020 8205 3014 8209
      3014 8242 3012 8246 3010 8274 3076 8226
      3074 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 264DEG 24KT 3070 8220 3033 8245

HESS

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