Lake Wind Advisory 37, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...NEAR RECORD RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...

NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...DEBBY TO TRACK INTO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN BAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND FL/GA BORDER TO
INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH RAINFALL BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE ALREADY ONGOING AREAL
FLOODING AND WILL PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR RECORD FLOODS ALONG
BLACK CREEK AND THE ST MARYS RIVER ALONG WITH MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING ALONG THE SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVERS. WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO STORM TOTALS OF 15-25 INCHES BY LATE
TOMORROW. FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER.
BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NE FL WITH SOUTH
WINDS AT 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS NE FL AND NE WINDS AT
15-20G25 MPH ACROSS SE GA. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS UNLESS LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY...TD DEBBY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SLOWLY EDGE TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NE FL ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF CENTER
TRACK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM BRUNSWICK SOUTHWARD TO
JACKSONVILLE AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HELP ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL AS PRODUCE A BRIEF 1-2 FT TIDAL SURGE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING AND
WILL DEPEND IF IT OCCURS DURING HIGH OR LOW TIDE CYCLE. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...BUT HOW WARM WILL DEPEND HOW FAST THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SE GA
WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT FIRST AND RAIN ENDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

WED NIGHT...RAINFALL BAND ON BACKSIDE OF TD DEBBY ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS AND ALONG LAGGING TROF ACROSS NE FL SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH FLOODING RAINFALL THREAT ENDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SE GA WITH LOWS
ACTUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER/MID 70S STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NE FL.

THURSDAY...MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIRMASS
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM AND EXPECT JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO FIRST OF
SEVERAL VERY HOT AND HUMID DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 RANGE.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE INITIATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO VALUES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND THE NEED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND VCSH ACROSS THE NE FL
TERMINALS AS RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. MAY SEE A
FEW POCKETS OF IFR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. KSSI WILL HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRA WITH MVFR AND OCNL IFR FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
BANDS AND STALLED TROUGH AXIS OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE AXIS MOVES SOUTH AND
DEBBY MOVES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY
OFFSHORE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT TIME AND ALSO EXPANDED
TO THE NEAR SHORE. BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY AS DEBBY MOVES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  87  66  93 /  50  10   0   0
SSI  74  82  72  88 /  90  50  10   0
JAX  72  85  69  90 /  90  60  20  10
SGJ  75  84  74  88 / 100  70  30  10
GNV  73  86  71  91 /  90  60  20  10
OCF  74  87  72  91 /  90  70  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-
     CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-WARE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

HESS/PETERSON/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270930-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE BLACK CREEK...ST. MARYS
RIVER...SUWANNEE RIVER...SANTA FE RIVER...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.FLOOD IMPACT...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH A FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
COULD CAUSE MORE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG BLACK CREEK IN PORTIONS OF CLAY
COUNTY AND A NEAR RECORD FLOOD IS EXPECTED.

MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE ALONG THE ST. MARYS RIVER IN
PORTIONS OF BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN...AND CHARLTON COUNTIES.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER IN
PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES AND MAJOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK.

MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE SANTA FE RIVERS IN PORTIONS
OF ALACHUA...BRADFORD...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE...AND UNION
COUNTIES.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS...DUE TO SOUTH WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 110 DEGREES AND HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AND TO
RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON/PP/JCH

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