Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISSAC AROUND
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. MESO ANALYSIS WAS PICKING UP A CONVERGENCE REGION
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WERE
OCCURRING AS NOTED BY AREA RADARS. ALSO INSTABILITY WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE SHEAR WAS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS ISSAC
WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...STILL THINK THAT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS REGION WIDE AND A FEW POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...MAINLY IN THE DELTA REGION AS THE ISSAC CONTINUES TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL TO WANE BY
AFTER SUNSET...AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MEAN MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS WE CONTINUE TO
PULL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
LESS DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL START
TO WARM THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ON OUR FAR WESTERN PARISHES
FOR SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERN USED A BLEND OF MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE FAR WEST ON SUNDAY./17/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC
WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR CWA AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRYING TO SPREAD OVER
OUR AREA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF HELPING TO
MAINTAIN OUR WARM MOIST AIRMASS. NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE UPPER 80S
WHILE LOWS RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
MONDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST SITE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS WILL EDGE
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DAILY POPS BEING
CARRIED IN OUR WEST WITH GREATEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE EAST. AS A
RESULT HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WEST AS WELL WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DECENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE TROUGHING BY FRIDAY AND DRIVES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP NORTH OF
MISSISSIPPI. WL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN FRIDAY. 17/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH ISAAC NOW IN SWRN MO...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OUT OF THE AREA.
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL STILL
AFFECT ALL SITES TODAY HOWEVER. WHILE MOST SITES WILL OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MOISTURE AND CONVECTION FROM
ISAAC IS STILL AFFECTING THE AREA AND WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AS
THE SUN SETS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
/10/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  91  74  93 /  22  47  30  23
MERIDIAN      72  92  72  94 /  20  47  44  28
VICKSBURG     74  92  74  93 /  23  41  22  21
HATTIESBURG   75  92  74  94 /  21  47  29  25
NATCHEZ       74  91  74  91 /  20  47  23  29
GREENVILLE    74  91  74  93 /  35  31  23  17
GREENWOOD     74  92  75  93 /  35  39  29  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/10/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

LAZ024>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-012015-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE REMANANT OF ISSAC PUSHES THROUGH MISSOURI. ADEQUATE WINDSHEAR...COMBINED
WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON HEATING...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WILL
CAUSE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS BANDS OF HEAVY
RAINS PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. RAINS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-
012015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE THE A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE REMANANT OF ISSAC
PUSHES THROUGH MISSOURI. ADEQUATE WINDSHEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WILL CAUSE STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS BANDS OF HEAVY
RAINS PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. RAIN BANDS WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

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LAZ016-MSZ047-053-312115-
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-MADISON LA-
343 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YOKENA AT 343 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CLAIBORNE AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3208 9114 3205 9110 3205 9108 3208 9108
      3210 9103 3212 9104 3213 9112 3231 9106
      3223 9080 3196 9096 3198 9112 3201 9108
      3203 9108 3205 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 195DEG 23KT 3210 9102

JC