Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISSAC AROUND
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...COMBINED WITH GOOD SHEAR FROM
ISSAC. ALSO GETTING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA
REGION. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER OF CAPE OF AROUND
2000 J/KG WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON TOP OF THE
SHEAR. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER PRESSING
NORTH FOR SOME INSOLATION TO BRING THE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH FOR
TODAY. SO THERE COULD BE SOME SPIN UP ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESP
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THERE
WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA
REGION...WHERE WE WILL EXCEED FFG. LOCAL WRF DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FFA FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE PUT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE ZONES
AND GRIDS FOR THE DELTA./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...400 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO MISSOURI TODAY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA IN HIS WAKE CAUSING BANDS
OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...TO
CONTINUE TO ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

JUST AS WE SAW ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES TO SPIN UP IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS AS A
RESULT OF ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A LIMITING
FACTOR THOUGH WILL BE INSTABILITY.  WHILE IT WILL BE LIMITED...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER DAYTIME HEATING...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.  WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...I WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO
SET UP OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES DURING THAT PERIOD WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL WARM UP AROUND 90...COMBINING WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.  THIS WILL HELP TO AGAIN SPARK SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE CWA.  ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS EACH NIGHT AS LOWS REMAIN MILD AND ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. /19/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY MORNING THE REMNANTS OF
ISAAC ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING STILL SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. RIDGES
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES NOSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS ABOVE TWO INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THE REMNANTS
OF ISAAC WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR CWA AND OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH FLAT RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRYING TO
SPREAD OVER OUR AREA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
GULF HELPING TO MAINTAIN OUR WARM MOIST AIRMASS. NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN
THE UPPER 80S WHILE LOWS RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S
AT MOST SITE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. MID LEVEL
RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS WILL EDGE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOWER DAILY POPS BEING CARRIED IN OUR WEST WITH
GREATEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE EAST. AS A RESULT HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WEST AS WELL WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
DECENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROUGHING BY FRIDAY AND DRIVES AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP NORTH OF MISSISSIPPI. WL LEAN
TOWARD A SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH ISAAC IN NWRN AR THIS MORNING...THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SUSTAINED SSELY WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL AFFECT
THE DELTA SITES TODAY HOWEVER. GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE SEEN IN
THOSE AREAS AS WELL. AT THE SITES FARTHER FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ISAAC... EXPECT SSELY WINDS OF ABOUT 10KTS. WHILE MOST SITES WILL
OBSERVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RAIN BANDS OF ISAAC ARE
STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING. /10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  90  74 /  53  32  51  37
MERIDIAN      88  73  91  73 /  53  33  56  50
VICKSBURG     88  75  91  74 /  59  31  45  26
HATTIESBURG   90  75  93  74 /  54  22  49  35
NATCHEZ       88  74  91  75 /  58  19  54  30
GREENVILLE    88  74  91  74 /  59  42  41  21
GREENWOOD     88  74  90  75 /  56  39  48  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/22/19

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