Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
453 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE ONGOING TSTORM COMPLEX CROSSING NRN/WRN
AREAS ATTM WITH VERY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED AS ADDITIONAL TSTORM DVLPMT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AREAS THIS AFTN.

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY HAS CONTINUED ITS
TREK SWD THRU N MS THIS MRNG. ALSO OF NOTE IS AN MCV IN SRN AR THAT
IS AIDING IN LOW-LVL CONVERGENT AXIS AND SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS ALONG THE SW FLANK OF THE SLOWLY DECAYING COMPLEX.
LATEST IR SAT INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH THE N MS COMPLEX BUT
COOLING TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SUPPORTED LINE. HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION
THROUGH 7AM. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MONITORED IN THIS AREA AS THIS
COMPLEX AND THE MCV SUPPORTED LINE MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MCV SUPPORTED TS LINE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NRN/CNTL AREAS OF MS THROUGH
EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS. DEPENDING ON ITS SRN EXTENT AS WELL AS
WHERE THE COLD POOL COMES TO REST BY MID AFTN, WILL DETERMINE THIS
AFTNS TS ACTIVITY.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL/RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY FROM CLOUDS ACROSS NE ZONES WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AND
SUPPORT NEW TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG
AND SEVERE WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE ADDITIONAL HELP OF
S/WV OVER REGION. THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CROSSETT, AR TO DE KALB, MS LINE THIS AFTN IS IN QUESTION AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR. HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN SW AND
TAPERING THEM DOWN TO THE NE THIS AFTN/EVE. STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY
WILL WANE GOING INTO THE OVRNGT FOR SRN AREAS BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AREA REMAINS IN MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS.

FOR SATURDAY...NWP HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH SFC FRONT MAKING IT
SOUTH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HWY-82 AND I-20. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH STORM DVLPMT EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN BUT INSOLATION LIMITATION MAY HINDER OVERALL STORM POTENCY.
LOW-LVL FLOW APPEARS TO BE PARALLEL TO W-E FRONTAL ORIENTATION AND
THIS COULD AID IN TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN 1.8-2.0" PWAT
ENVIRONMENT. BY LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN...THE MEAN L/WV TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY WITH LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS AND ACTS TO
SHIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN SHOWER/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVRNGT SAT INTO SUN MRNG.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THIS MORNING
FOR NRN AREAS AND THEN FLIPPED BEST POPS FOR THIS AFTN TO S/SW AREAS
(WELL ABOVE MAVMOS). HIGHS WERE REDUCED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY
DUE TO XPCTD CLOUD COVER. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED FOR SAT AFTN
PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE STUBBORN MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD NEXT WEEK
LEAVING A FLATTENING WNWLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE GULF STATES.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY ON SUNDAY...A SHARP 30-40DM HEIGHT FALL AND VORT
TROUGH AT 500MB PIVOTS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY BRINGING A ROUND
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS STORMS SWD THROUGH OUR CWFA AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE GULF COAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST RAIN/
STORM CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT ALONG A HIGHWAY 49
AXIS AS DRIER AIR NOSES ONLY INTO OUR NERN LOCATIONS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS COULD EASILY AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCHES FOR MUCH OF OUR CWFA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
200MB JET STREAK PULLING AWAY THRU THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

BY MONDAY MORNING...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO OUR SRN QUARTER
AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY AND PWATS DROP TO NEAR ONE INCH
ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SRN AREAS NEAR 1.5". TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
THE DRIEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON SLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LIFTS NWD. A MORE DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF STATES EVEN ON FRIDAY AS SOME MID
LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S DOMINATE. POPS STAY GENERALLY
IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHIFT
TO SRN SECTIONS AT 50-70 PERCENT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. POPS RETURN NWD
IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY PREFERRED./40/

&&

.AVIATION...TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDS PERSIST ACROSS NRN TAF SITES,
ESPECIALLY KGTR THROUGH THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HEAVY TS WITH LIGHTNING
AND REDUCED MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT KGTR THROUGH 7-8AM WITH
GRADUAL IPVMT THEREAFTER. CNTRL/SRN TAF SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH
MRNG BUT HAVE SCT/NUM TS DVLP 19Z-17/01Z WITH STORM TOPS TO FL500
AND ENHANCED TURBULENCE INVOF TS. GENERAL WINDS OUTSIDE OF TS
INFLUENCE WILL BE WLY AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS. BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR CONDS AND ERRATIC SFC WINDS PSBL IF TS IMPACTS SITE
DIRECTLY. TS COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS REGION BY 17/02Z BUT SOME
LINGERING ISO/SCT SHRA WILL PERSIST BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN SPECIFIC TAF AT THIS TIME. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  70  88  69 /  77  41  51  40
MERIDIAN      92  70  89  69 /  73  41  50  38
VICKSBURG     91  70  88  67 /  80  48  52  45
HATTIESBURG   92  72  91  73 /  92  48  60  49
NATCHEZ       90  71  88  70 /  93  60  67  48
GREENVILLE    90  68  86  65 /  89  32  37  42
GREENWOOD     89  68  86  64 /  94  31  33  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-072>074-180500-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS
WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FLASHING FLOODING FROM HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD ALSO OCCUR AS A
COOL FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS
WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UP TO OR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>052-180500-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
EXTENDING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PORT GIBSON MISSISSIPPI TO LAUREL
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 60 MPH AS WELL HAIL FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AIRMASS RECOVERS FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY...HOWEVER. WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH...DIME TO QUARTER HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSING A
FLASH FLOODING RISK COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR...AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS
WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UP TO OR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN/40

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MSZ034-040-041-170845-
WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
35 TO 45 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLEN ALLAN AT 316
AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUWENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA...NORTHERN SHARKEY AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3303 9114 3304 9112 3307 9113 3313 9113
      3313 9109 3316 9108 3314 9071 3292 9074
      3297 9108 3299 9111 3298 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 276DEG 17KT 3306 9102

JA

MSZ030-031-170950-
LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF BENT OAK AT 420 AM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHERN LOWNDES COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3349 8828 3343 8828 3329 8830 3330 8858
      3356 8855 3354 8827 3350 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 273DEG 17KT 3344 8847

JA

MSZ043-047>050-171130-
WARREN MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
531 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...STRONG STORM WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF LIGHTING TO CROSS JACKSON METRO
AREA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL
AND 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM CANTON TO FLOWERS AT 529 AM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HINDS...SOUTHERN MADISON...RANKIN...COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3254 8965 3215 9005 3219 9048 3236 9085
      3271 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 299DEG 18KT 3263 9002 3236 9066

JA

MSZ047>051-053>057-171225-
WARREN MS-SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-NEWTON MS-JASPER MS-
HINDS MS-COPIAH MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
626 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS DUMPING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS AND
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS LOCATED FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FOREST TO BRANDON TO REGANTON AT 624 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY HEAD TO THE NEWTON TO RALEIGH
TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS AREAS BEFORE 700 AM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE...COPIAH...SOUTHERN HINDS...
JASPER...NEWTON...SOUTHERN RANKIN...SOUTHERN SCOTT...SIMPSON...SMITH
AND SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3193 8894 3180 8947 3175 9038 3219 9090
      3221 8999 3256 8897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 315DEG 25KT 3244 8931 3214 8991
          3212 9072

40