Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

CURRENTLY A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN TWO CORRIDORS
ACROSS THE CWA...ONE OVER EASTERN MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
MCV FROM THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ACROSS NE LOUISIANA AND SE
ARKANSAS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY BEING DRIVEN BY
INSTABILITY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM OKC TO STL...
AND WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURRS...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
LATER ON TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE NW. EVEN IF THIS
COMPLEX DOES NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE AREA...NWP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A GENERALLY STORMY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW THEN BEGIN TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PROVIDING REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 12Z GFS
WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE TAKING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...AND WAS LARGELY DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN IMPROVED SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT...WE MAY SEE MORE IMPROVED STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND POPS...WENT ABOVE MAV POP GUIDANCE TOWARD
ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CUT DAYTIME
HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS/PRECIP
IN THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD NEXT WEEK LEAVING A FLATTENING NWLY FLOW REGIME
FOR THE GULF STATES. A 20-40DM HEIGHT FALL AT 500MB PIVOTS THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH OUR CWFA
ON SATURDAY GETS A FINAL PUSH TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
RAIN/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AS DRIER
H7 AIR IS DRIVEN IN ACROSS OUR NRN LOCATIONS.

BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SRN QUARTER AS FLOW SHOULD
BECOME MORE NWLY INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR ONE INCH
ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SRN AREAS NEAR 1.5". MOISTURE SHOULD BE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN LIFTS NWD AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EDGES NWD IN RESPONSE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3-4 DAYS COULD EASILY AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES
FOR OUR CWFA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. POPS STAY GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHIFT TO SRN SECTIONS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY. POPS RETURN NWD IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK./40/

&&

.AVIATION...A MINOR DISTURBANCE SITTING ON TOP OF THE AREA IS
PROMOTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MS CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED UP NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOME STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY COULD BE STILL BE LITTLE INTENSE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOTS OF INFLIGHT TURBULENCE.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AND MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. THIS COULD LEAVE A WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO
FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  71  86 /  38  70  43  62
MERIDIAN      70  92  70  87 /  20  74  36  57
VICKSBURG     73  93  71  85 /  39  61  50  70
HATTIESBURG   74  93  73  89 /  20  67  36  62
NATCHEZ       74  92  72  85 /  20  65  30  61
GREENVILLE    73  90  70  85 /  48  53  44  60
GREENWOOD     72  89  69  85 /  49  59  41  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/BB/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-072>074-172100-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
352 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE MOST INTENSE COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO
THE HEART OF THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH INSTABILITY
LEVELS COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UP TO OR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>052-172100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
352 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. THE MOST INTENSE COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS
WELL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SHOULD WILL DEVELOP GRADUALLY SOUTH INTO THE HEART OF THE ARKLAMISS
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH INSTABILITY LEVELS COMBINED WITH A
BIT OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR...AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UP TO OR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

MSZ036-037-170000-
ATTALA MS-HOLMES MS-
636 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
636 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF GOODMAN AT 636 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES AND SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 8975 3294 8991 3304 8996 3311 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 323DEG 9KT 3302 8988

CME

MSZ073-170005-
LAMAR MS-
636 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
636 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF PURVIS AT 636 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3108 8962 3124 8953 3118 8935 3101 8935
      3100 8935 3100 8941 3099 8942 3098 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 295DEG 10KT 3112 8948

19

MSZ072-073-170100-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
702 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
702 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
PINEBUR AT 702 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR AND EAST CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3099 8948 3101 8951 3100 8956 3109 8975
      3126 8967 3116 8935 3104 8935 3100 8937
      3100 8941 3098 8943 3097 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 310DEG 20KT 3112 8961

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
714 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             DURANT                  33.08N 89.86W
08/16/2012  E0.88 INCH       HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DURANT                  33.08N 89.86W
08/16/2012                   HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN TOWN.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE FOREST             32.41N 89.40W
08/16/2012                   SCOTT              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON RUSSELL COMMUNITY ROAD.

&&

DCOX

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