Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LATEST VIS SAT REVEALING MANY LINEAR CUMULUS CONGESTUS BANDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL MS EXTENDING SW INTO SE AR/NE LA AS A SLOWLY MOVING
COOL FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG A RUSTON, LA TO CLARKSDALE TO CORINTH,
MS LINE. LATEST SFC OBS AND VIS SAT ALSO INDICATE SFC LOW PRESENT
ACROSS N MS ALONG WITH NWP DEPICTING 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES ~3000 J/KG AND
UPPER-LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN RISKS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 MPH, QUARTER SIZED HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH DECENT UPPER-LVL FLOW, SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION COULD
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AND ENHANCE THE STRONG WIND RISK THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.

STORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SE AND DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS SW AREAS
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY LAGS ACROSS LA/TX.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS BUT SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS: HOW FAR/FAST WILL THE COOL
FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD? THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH, YET
PERSISTENT ON BRINGING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS BY
MID-DAY DAY SATURDAY. THE NAM AND NEW EC CONTINUE TO HOLD THE FRONT UP
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SREF PROBS FOR
THE 65F ISODROSOTHERM LOCATION IS SPLIT INTO NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
CAMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MEAN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THIS PACKAGE.
STATING THAT...SOME ISOLATED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS SRN AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
REMAINING DRY, COOLER, WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER DEEP S/WV IS PROGGED TO
DROP OUT OF THE UPPER MS VLY...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK
INTO THE REGION. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AFTN.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS THIS PERIOD...DROPPED HIGHS 1-2F THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE
WITH 1-2F DROPS TO SATURDAY'S HIGHS. LOWS WERE MASSAGED TOWARDS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A SLIGHT GFS WEIGHT. SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE
REGARDLESS, AS LOWS DROP AT LEAST THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY MRNG. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CLOUD LAYERS 3-6K FEET WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH 02Z AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. LIGHT SWLY SURFACE FLOW OF 6-11KTS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WNW...THEN NWLY LESS THAN 8KTS TONIGHT AND NLY 6-10KTS
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED/LOCALLY SCATTERED TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY CORRIDOR BEFORE DRYING OFF ABOUT 01-03Z. THE
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE INTERRUPTED LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG
08-13Z BUT RESUME BY 14Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A SCATTERING OF
CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 5K FEET 17-23Z. /40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  88  64  93 /  18   4   0   4
MERIDIAN      68  88  61  91 /  25   9   0   4
VICKSBURG     64  88  63  91 /  16   3   0   4
HATTIESBURG   72  91  66  95 /  38  19   5   6
NATCHEZ       68  88  64  91 /  34   9   0   5
GREENVILLE    64  88  63  92 /   6   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     63  87  61  92 /   7   2   0   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ027>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-111915-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AROUND 8 PM AS A SLOWING COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-040-041-111915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THE DELTA OF MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

MSZ065-066-110105-
JONES MS-COVINGTON MS-
735 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
735 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES EAST OF
ELLISVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOSELLE AT 736 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND JONES COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3145 8952 3172 8947 3173 8894 3144 8894
      3143 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 276DEG 19KT 3158 8913 3158 8934

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE NATCHEZ            31.57N 91.36W
08/10/2012                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LARGE LIMB WAS BLOWN OVER ONTO A HOUSE ALONG BROOKFIELD
            DRIVE...CAUSING SOME MINOR DAMAGE

&&

DL

MSZ055-056-065-110130-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-COVINGTON MS-
802 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAGEE TO 9 MILES WEST OF MOUNT OLIVE AT 802 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3169 8975 3177 8975 3178 8976 3177 8978
      3177 8987 3183 8985 3199 8970 3196 8953
      3180 8960 3168 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 280DEG 13KT 3191 8966 3181 8975
          3172 8981

BK

MSZ044>046-050>052-110210-
SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-NESHOBA MS-LEAKE MS-LAUDERDALE MS-KEMPER MS-
810 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
810 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ELECTRIC MILLS TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE AT 810 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN KEMPER...NORTHERN LAUDERDALE...SOUTHERN LEAKE...NESHOBA...
NORTHERN NEWTON AND SCOTT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3253 8839 3241 8883 3231 8965 3271 8971
      3288 8904 3291 8840 3286 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 335DEG 13KT 3288 8830 3278 8894
          3268 8959

EEC

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