Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LATEST VIS SAT REVEALING MANY LINEAR CUMULUS CONGESTUS BANDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL MS EXTENDING SW INTO SE AR/NE LA AS A SLOWLY MOVING
COOL FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG A RUSTON, LA TO CLARKSDALE TO CORINTH,
MS LINE. LATEST SFC OBS AND VIS SAT ALSO INDICATE SFC LOW PRESENT
ACROSS N MS ALONG WITH NWP DEPICTING 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES ~3000 J/KG AND
UPPER-LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN RISKS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 MPH, QUARTER SIZED HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH DECENT UPPER-LVL FLOW, SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION COULD
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AND ENHANCE THE STRONG WIND RISK THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.

STORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SE AND DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS SW AREAS
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY LAGS ACROSS LA/TX.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS BUT SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS: HOW FAR/FAST WILL THE COOL
FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD? THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH, YET
PERSISTENT ON BRINGING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS BY
MID-DAY DAY SATURDAY. THE NAM AND NEW EC CONTINUE TO HOLD THE FRONT UP
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SREF PROBS FOR
THE 65F ISODROSOTHERM LOCATION IS SPLIT INTO NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
CAMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MEAN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THIS PACKAGE.
STATING THAT...SOME ISOLATED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS SRN AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
REMAINING DRY, COOLER, WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER DEEP S/WV IS PROGGED TO
DROP OUT OF THE UPPER MS VLY...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK
INTO THE REGION. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AFTN.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS THIS PERIOD...DROPPED HIGHS 1-2F THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE
WITH 1-2F DROPS TO SATURDAY'S HIGHS. LOWS WERE MASSAGED TOWARDS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A SLIGHT GFS WEIGHT. SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE
REGARDLESS, AS LOWS DROP AT LEAST THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY MRNG. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CLOUD LAYERS 3-6K FEET WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH 02Z AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. LIGHT SWLY SURFACE FLOW OF 6-11KTS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WNW...THEN NWLY LESS THAN 8KTS TONIGHT AND NLY 6-10KTS
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED/LOCALLY SCATTERED TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY CORRIDOR BEFORE DRYING OFF ABOUT 01-03Z. THE
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE INTERRUPTED LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG
08-13Z BUT RESUME BY 14Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A SCATTERING OF
CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 5K FEET 17-23Z. /40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  88  64  93 /  18   4   0   4
MERIDIAN      68  88  61  91 /  25   9   0   4
VICKSBURG     64  88  63  91 /  16   3   0   4
HATTIESBURG   72  91  66  95 /  38  19   5   6
NATCHEZ       68  88  64  91 /  34   9   0   5
GREENVILLE    64  88  63  92 /   6   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     63  87  61  92 /   7   2   0   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ027>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-111915-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AROUND 8 PM AS A SLOWING COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-040-041-111915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THE DELTA OF MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

MSZ055-056-065-102340-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-COVINGTON MS-
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER MOUNT OLIVE AT 610 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN COVINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3169 8975 3171 8976 3187 8973 3185 8938
      3180 8939 3179 8940 3174 8940 3163 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 278DEG 11KT 3177 8964

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE STANTON           31.58N 91.23W
08/10/2012                   ADAMS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ALONG STATE PARK ROAD...ONE TREE BLOCKING
            THE ROAD

&&

DL

MSZ032-038-110010-
WINSTON MS-CHOCTAW MS-
641 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM WEST OF LOUISVILLE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF LOUISVILLE AT 640
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3293 8907 3293 8912 3310 8932 3321 8931
      3328 8924 3308 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 311DEG 16KT 3316 8923

BYB

MSZ052-110025-
LAUDERDALE MS-
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF NELLIEBURG AT 657 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3245 8840 3239 8840 3230 8842 3234 8883
      3252 8882 3252 8839 3245 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 274DEG 22KT 3243 8872

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
659 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESVILLE              31.62N 91.83W
08/10/2012                   CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A UTILITY LINE WAS DOWNED BY A LARGE LIMB

&&

DL

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