Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE FORECAST REMAINS THE HEAT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1017MB HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HIGH AND THE OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION BENEATH THE HIGH HAS HELPED PUSH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP THE HUMIDITY
LOWER THAN EXPECTED THERE TODAY AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES
BUT...THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDED 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
AGAIN TODAY. THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW SENDING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF OUR
CWA AND HELPING MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN UNDER FORECAST LATELY BY THE MODELS AND HAVE
ONLY BEEN MIXING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG WITH LOWER 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 105F. THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS HAVE ALSO HELPED HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...IN THE MID 70S AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST TO COVER ALL
EXPECT OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR
WILL DEPART OUR NORTHEAST SLOWER AND MODELS STILL INDICATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ROUNDING THE LARGE HIGH AND DROPPING
DOWN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES MAKE THE HEAT
INDEX FORECAST MORE IN QUESTION OVER THE NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER MAY BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
TUESDAY ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA SO DID NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO TUESDAY BUT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY. THE GFS MOS WAS LOW WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. NAM GUIDANCE LOWS WERE
LEANED ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE THE HEAT AND HIGH MOISTURE...THERE
WILL BE SOME WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
SO HAVE MENTION STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN HWO OVER THE EAST MONDAY.
/22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE RETROGRADING MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTER OPENS THE
GATES FOR MINOR TROUGHS RIDING DOWN INTO LOWER MS AND TN VLYS. THE
AXIS OF 2.2 INCH PWAT AIR ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER ALSO SLIDES WWD. A
COUPLE OF ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EPISODES WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MCS COMPLEXES DURING THIS TIME FRAME APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN. SOME HINTS THAT A COMPLEX NORTH OF REGION TUE NGT
WILL LEAD INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SWD PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY WED
EVENING WHERE MLCAPES 2-3K J/KG AND K INDEXES OF 40-43 SHOULD BE
WAITING. ADD IN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
ARKLAMISS ON THU... AND WE SHOULD HAVE OUR BEST SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
FOR THE WHOLE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY...A CLOSED TUTT LOW MOVES WWD MORE ACROSS THE SRN
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND DELTA REGION. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD HOTTER
AFTN ENSEMBLE MOS AGAIN AS THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE GETS STRONGER. ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE TUTT COULD STILL ALTER THE WEEKEND
FORECAST SO WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...MEX MOS MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED WITH UPWARD TWEAKS ON MIN TEMPS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES WHICH CAME IN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR TUE-FRI
TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. /40/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES VFR TODAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TILL 30/10-13Z
WHEN MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO RESTRICTED VIS/BR. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHBG AND KMEI BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICALLY BEING AT THE
TAF SITE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR POSSIBILITY. IF STORM DOES
OCCUR...COULD BEING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
NORTH AT 3-8KT AND GO TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
GRADUALLY OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  99  76  98 /   5   5   9  19
MERIDIAN      74  99  74  98 /   9  15  16  29
VICKSBURG     74  98  75  98 /   4   2   8  13
HATTIESBURG   75  98  75  99 /  17  23  19  26
NATCHEZ       74  96  74  96 /   8  12  10  18
GREENVILLE    75  99  76  99 /   6   4   8  13
GREENWOOD     75  98  75  99 /   7   6   8  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
     034>038-040>066-072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/28/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>038-040>066-072>074-302045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH INTO THE 106 TO 111 DEGREE
RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING IN THE MID 70S WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ARE ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF EAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BY MID
WEEK. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

MSZ030-031-033-039-302045-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-NOXUBEE-
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH INTO THE
104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS
IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF EAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BY MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CRANDALL           31.99N 88.56W
07/29/2012                   CLARKE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN ALONG HWY 511.

&&

CME

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