Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
937 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.UPDATE...REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE EXCEPT FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEEDED 105 DEGREES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NW CWA AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN TOMORROW. HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TO BE MET. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND LOOK FOR THIS TO
PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS A 2 HR WINDOW AROUND SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW SITES. OUTSIDE
THAT...ANOTHER HOT ONE FOR SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI JUST NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THERE WERE A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATING TONIGHT. GREENVILLE THE HOT
SPOT THIS AFTERNOON...HIT 100F AT 3 PM. MOST OTHER SITES WERE IN THE
LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY NOT HELP SET OFF
ACTIVITY...THIS HEAT COMBINED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION ANY STORMS THIS EVENING AS ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE EARLY.  THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA BUT SHIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE 595DM MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INITIALLY BUT ALSO A FEW SUBTLE DISTURBANCES. THE TOTAL BLENDED PW
PRODUCT SHOWS THE 2IN PLUS PWS SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOWER MOISTURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE HIGHER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL PEAK AROUND 105F AT MANY LOCATIONS.
LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET. MONDAY
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA
WITH A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY HELP BRING
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE ACTIVITY NORTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GFS MOS POPS WERE RATHER LOW BUT THE ECMWF
AND UKMET SUGGESTED GREATER COVERAGE SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
MORE SIGHTS WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 105F FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES. MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING OUR CWA FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY BUT
THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NIGHTTIME COOLING WITH MANY
SIGHTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.
/22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEAN H5-H3 RIDGE CENTER
RETROGRADES W AS NUMEROUS MINOR TROUGHS RIDE OVER THE TOP AND DOWN
THE BACKSIDE INTO MID-LOWER MS AND TN VLYS. THE MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MAKES FOR LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MCS COMPLEXES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS REASONABLE. SOME NWP RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HINTS
AT COMPLEX NORTH OF REGION TUE NGT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SWD PUSH INTO
THE ARKLAMISS BY WED EVENING AS A MORE POTENT WAVE DIVES IN WITH
VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-29C. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY
DROPPING INTO THE ARKLAMISS ON THU WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE BEST FOR THE WHOLE WEEK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED TUTT LOW MOVES WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH COULD ALSO ADD SOME INFLUENCE TO DEVELOPMENTS
BY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THAT SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE S. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE TUTT
COULD ALTER THE WEEKEND FORECAST SO WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...MEX MOS MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED WITH UPWARD TWEAKS ON MIN TEMPS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES WHICH CAME IN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR TUE-FRI
TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. /40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  97  72  99 /   4   3   3  11
MERIDIAN      70  96  68  98 /   4   3   4  17
VICKSBURG     71  98  70  98 /   8   1   3   6
HATTIESBURG   73  97  73  99 /   4   7   7  18
NATCHEZ       73  95  73  96 /   4   3   4  16
GREENVILLE    71 100  73 101 /   5   2   3   5
GREENWOOD     70  97  72  99 /  13   2   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

27/CME/22/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
733 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>037-
040>044-047>066-072>074-300045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
733 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING BETWEEN 95
AND 100 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102 AND 107 DEGREES BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MSZ026-028>033-038-039-045-046-300045-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
733 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

CME

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LAZ023-025-290340-
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-
957 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAKERS AT
957 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3237 9150 3236 9149 3234 9150 3234 9147
      3232 9147 3230 9150 3230 9153 3225 9152
      3226 9154 3225 9155 3223 9151 3221 9155
      3220 9138 3196 9155 3209 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 035DEG 19KT 3224 9148

19