Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

.UPDATE...WRN CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND AGAIN ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS
TOWARD SOME CHANCE FOR NERN/ERN MS TO CATCH A FEW TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AL PROPAGATES SWWD. EVENING RAOBS STILL
SHOW 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS IN PLACE AND WEAKENING DISTURBANCES ROTATING
IN FROM THE ENE WILL BE THE TRIGGERS FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MASSIVE 300MB ANTICYCLONE NEAR KMKC MIGRATES EWD INTO ERN
KY OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE MAIN HEAT DOME N OF OUR AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT WERE TO SMOOTH HOURLY SKY GRIDS/TEMPS/
AND DWPTS./40/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST SHRA/TSRA OVER NERN LA HAS DIED OFF.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE E
INTO OUR ERN COUNTIES MAINLY NE OF A GRENADA-LAUREL LINE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR BR/HZ WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 09-14Z
FRIDAY...MAINLY WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL LATE THURSDAY. /40/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/

THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SAME GENERAL EXPECTATIONS FOR TOMORROW
AS THE HOT AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS TOMORROW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE TODAY. PWATS WILL SURGE
NEAR 2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE H5 RIDGE IS
HOLDING OVER MISSOURI NOW AND WILL BEGIN FLATTENING TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING HIGHER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA TOMORROW...OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN LATELY. /10/

LONG TERM...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR THE LONGER RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH WORKS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THE GFS PAINTS BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER
WRN ZONES...WHICH SIT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MORE DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...THE EURO MOVING THE TROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER
AND MAINTAINING BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY SHIFT INTO WRN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS SHOULD WARRANT MENTION OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE SE.

UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS A
HEALTHY SURFACE TROUGH INTO NRN MS TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH....THE EURO SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON
THIS FEATURE.  GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
WHEN THE SRN EDGES OF LONGER WAVE TROUGHING PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE N/NE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST...THE GFS SWEEPING A
HUGE AREA OF 2+ INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE AREA.
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL TIMING RESULT IN DIFFERENT RESOLUTIONS IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EURO IS AGAIN MUCH SLOWER
AND MAINTAINS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY WHILE THE
FASTER GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER EAST...LEAVING THE REGION
IN NWLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO PUSH A DRIER AIR MASS INTO NRN ZONES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MEX MOS
FOR POPS THROUGH THE LATTER EXTENDED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH.

DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING WILL MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY FROM MONDAY ON WHEN LONG WAVE TROUGHING PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. /03/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
AS MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE PAST MONTH.
FORTUNATELY...SPOTTY DECENT RAINFALL DID OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY IN MANY
AREAS (OUTSIDE OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA)...AND THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
RECEIVING DECENT RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST HOLDS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. IF
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS MAY CONSIDER LIFTING BURN BANS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  97  71  96 /   8  24  48  20
MERIDIAN      70  97  70  96 /  21  27  38  20
VICKSBURG     72  96  72  95 /   6  24  51  23
HATTIESBURG   71  95  71  94 /  12  47  30  20
NATCHEZ       71  92  71  92 /   6  46  39  24
GREENVILLE    71  98  71  96 /   9  15  46  20
GREENWOOD     71  99  71  97 /   9  16  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
247 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-
062000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
247 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF BOTH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS...AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO NICKEL OR QUARTER SIZE.

HOT CONDITIONS...WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES...ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH MORE
STORMS ERUPTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-062000-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
247 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

HOT CONDITIONS...WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES...ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH MORE
STORMS ERUPTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19

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