Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS ACROSS ARKLAMISS VIA THE SPC. THE RISK OF MICROBURSTS IS
LIKELY WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND VERY WARM TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE. PW VALUES ARE 1.75 TO 2 INCHES IN THE AREA. THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUDS INHIBITED THE MAIN
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FROM SPROUTING MUCH EARLIER TODAY THOUGH. AS
THESE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THE GROUND HAS WARMED UP BEHIND THEM
AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE AGAIN FOR MULTICELLS IN NORTHERN MS AND
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN AGREEMENT IN HOW THE OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN AL AND
SOUTHERN TN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD MAY HAVE ENOUGH PUSH BEHIND IT TO
EXTEND ITSELF INTO OUR NRN CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH OF THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR EXPERIENCING THE BRUNT OF IT. OVERNIGHT...AS THE COMPLEX
PROGRESSES THROUGH MS IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT WON'T HAVE ANY
BOUYANCY TO FEED OFF OF AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE SOUTHERN CWA CAN
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND NOT MUCH IN THE CHANCES OF STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN ROTATING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE H5 RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
HAS BROUGHT DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. THIS SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS H5 RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN WEAKENING THIS SUNDAY AND
ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHLY
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS ALL
THIS RAIN COOLS THE GROUND. /10/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGHING THAT TRACKS
WWD INTO THE REGION UNDERNEATH WEAKENING RIDGING WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS IT PHASES WITH
AN UPPER LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE NERN U.S.
STATES. A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WILL DROP ALONG WRN EDGES OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...EVENTUALLY DIGGING OUT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE ERN U.S. THAT WILL MAINTAIN A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA. THEY ALSO DEVELOP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HANG JUST TO OUR N SUN AND MON BEFORE
DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND HANGING ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL ZONES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HEALTHY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LOW UNTIL LATER IN THE EXTENDED WHEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NRN ZONES. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN LOW LEVEL
FORCING/CONVERGENCE BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. FOLLOWED MEX
MOS POPS BUT RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR NEXT WEEK
ACCORDING TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.

A BREAK FROM HOTTER TEMPERATURES IS ON THE WAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REMAINING A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AT MANY AREAS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA.  AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50-60 KNOTS...ALONG WITH HAIL...WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  MOST STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND PERHAPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  BRIEF MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES WILL EXIST
AT SITES THAT OBSERVE ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MANY COUNTIES/PARISHES AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REMAIN
UNDER BURN BANS AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL
FOR THE PAST MONTH. FORTUNATELY...SPOTTY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MANY AREAS...AND THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
RECEIVING DECENT RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST HOLDS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
IF WEATHER CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE SOME STATE FORESTRY COMMISSIONS MAY
CONSIDER LIFTING SOME LOCAL BURN BANS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  94  72  91 /  40  46  48  56
MERIDIAN      71  93  71  91 /  40  45  46  45
VICKSBURG     72  95  72  91 /  40  48  49  61
HATTIESBURG   71  93  72  90 /  26  55  23  30
NATCHEZ       71  91  72  90 /  29  62  31  47
GREENVILLE    73  97  73  93 /  40  35  54  68
GREENWOOD     71  96  73  91 /  40  35  56  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-071915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
210 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF BOTH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HOT AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIFTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

IN ADDITION...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A WEST SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT...
POSING YET ANOTHER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING IN FROM THE EAST. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH
ALONG WITH HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-071915-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
210 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HOT AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIFTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19

LAZ024-026-062230-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
459 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF WEST FERRIDAY AT 500
PM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CATAHOULA AND NORTHWESTERN CONCORDIA PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3156 9198 3178 9201 3182 9160 3164 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 080DEG 24KT 3172 9165

MRM

MSZ030-062250-
CLAY MS-
519 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
MONTPELIER TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST POINT AT 519 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CLAY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3352 8857 3353 8860 3356 8868 3367 8904
      3375 8904 3376 8894 3382 8893 3382 8874
      3380 8871 3368 8871 3369 8850 3364 8851
      3361 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 031DEG 21KT 3380 8899 3366 8857

BK

LAZ024-026-062300-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
531 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF WILDSVILLE AT 531 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CATAHOULA AND WEST CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3171 9175 3149 9168 3140 9201 3164 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 080DEG 24KT 3156 9183

MRM

MSZ029>033-062305-
WEBSTER MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
535 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM WOODLAND TO WEST
POINT AT 535 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW...CLAY...OKTIBBEHA AND WEBSTER
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3332 8876 3337 8925 3365 8943 3373 8930
      3373 8920 3375 8919 3374 8904 3376 8903
      3376 8894 3377 8893 3362 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 028DEG 15KT 3364 8897

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
615 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE NEW HOPE          33.44N 88.30W
07/06/2012                   LOWNDES            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ACROSS A ROAD NEAR LAKE LOWNDES STATE
            PARK

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E COLUMBUS            33.51N 88.39W
07/06/2012                   LOWNDES            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS POWER LINES AND TREE FELL ON A HOUSE
            ON THE EAST SIDE OF COLUMBUS

&&

DL

MSZ038-039-062350-
WINSTON MS-NOXUBEE MS-
621 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
621 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH INTO WINSTON AND NOXUBEE
COUNTIES...

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS LOCATED FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF BETHEDEN TO 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIGBEE VALLEY AT 619 PM CDT WAS MOVING SOUTH AT
20 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHERN
WINSTON AND NOXUBEE COUNTIES BY 7 PM. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NOXUBEE AND WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3317 8831 3294 8841 3319 8911 3328 8911
      3329 8844 3328 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 020DEG 18KT 3342 8896 3322 8840

BK