Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...NOT AN OVERLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM...BUT THERE DOES EXIST
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER ACTIVITY ON FRI WITH A MORE QUIET PERIOD
FOR THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY THE CWA HAS AN OLD SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE S/SW
PORTION TODAY WHICH IS SEPARATING NEAR 70 TO LOWER 60 SFC DEWPTS.
AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RICH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWS
1.8-1.9 IN. ADDING TO THOSE FEATURES ARE SOME LEFTOVER MCV'S FROM
PREV DAYS CONVECTION. THE FIRST WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SW PART OF
OUR CWA AND HAS SHOWN RECENT INDICATIONS OF MOVING W/NW. THE OTHER
IS IN THE NE GULF JUST OFF THE FL COAST. THE SYSTEM NEAREST TO THE
CWA HAS WORKED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER STORMS OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA. THERE WAS MORE OF A MID CLOUD DECK LINGERING OVER OUR AREA
TO LIMIT SFC HEATING AND NOW THAT THIS IS ERODING...PRECIP POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR SW AREAS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVE. AS FOR
TEMPS...GUID WAS A TAD TOO LOW AND HAVE ADJ A FEW LOCATIONS UPWARD
FOR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A BIT WARMER.

FOR FRI...THE AREA WILL STILL SEE LIFTING INFLUENCES FROM THE
LEFTOVER MCV'S WHICH WILL PROVIDE NICE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE OLD SFC BOUNDARY NEAR AND A NICE CONTRAST IN
AIRMASS. THE EXTRA INGREDIENT WILL BE THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS OVER GA NOW AND TRIGGERING STORMS
OVER AL THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE OUR CWA WILL GET SQUEEZED IN
BETWEEN ALL THE ABOVE FEATURES TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE THREAT OF
PRECIP. GUID HAS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE SOUTH HALF WITH DECENT
CHANCES AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THAT THINKING. AS FOR
TEMPS...GUID SEEMED TOO WARM OVER THE NW ON FRI. TEMPS THIS MONTH
HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXCEED 91 FOR GLH/GWO AND HIGHS WERE REDUCED TO
THAT LEVEL.

THERE WILL ALSO EXIST A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI AFTERNOON.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE GREAT...BUT SUPPORT OF SOME ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE OK AND AROUND THE 27C RANGE. SFC TEMPS
WILL WARM TO AROUND 90 AND COMBINE THAT WITH UPPER 60S DEWPTS...SB
CAPE WILL BE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND MLCAPE 2500 J/KG. STORMS WILL MOVE
MAINLY E TO W AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. THESE SLOWER MOVING
STORMS MAY POSE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK AS WELL. EACH OF THESE
RISK WERE ADDED TO THE HWO FOR FRI AFTN.

LOOK FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT FOR SAT. ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SW
CWA TO KEEP A MENTION OF LOW END PRECIP CHANCES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY ACTIVITY. THIS HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
WILL LINGER INTO SUN AND KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...KHBG...WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT A BRIEF
REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IF OBSERVED WITHIN THE AERODROME.  CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NAMELY KJAN...KHKS...KMEI...& KHBG...WHICH COULD AGAIN CAUSE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG COULD BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO SOME
LOCALES FRIDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  67  90 /  12  35   9   8
MERIDIAN      65  90  64  89 /  11  26   7   4
VICKSBURG     68  91  67  90 /  21  39   9  10
HATTIESBURG   69  90  68  89 /  15  54  24  18
NATCHEZ       68  89  68  87 /  32  56  24  27
GREENVILLE    66  91  69  90 /  10  19   4   5
GREENWOOD     65  91  67  90 /  10  19   4   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>066-072>074-151900-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
200 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BASTROP LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY MISSISSIPPI TO DEKALB
LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY NEAR A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CAUSE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-151900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
200 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19

LAZ015-142235-
RICHLAND LA-
457 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BUCKNER AT 457 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3240 9200 3245 9195 3248 9194 3246 9179
      3218 9185 3218 9199 3219 9199 3219 9200
      3220 9201 3221 9200 3227 9200 3228 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 188DEG 5KT 3231 9196

JC

LAZ015-023-142310-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
528 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF LIDDIEVILLE AT
528 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3225 9197 3224 9175 3190 9173 3192 9182
      3195 9185 3198 9190 3204 9191 3208 9193
      3210 9188 3214 9190 3216 9190 3216 9198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 001DEG 17KT 3215 9186

JC

MSZ061-142325-
FRANKLIN MS-
553 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIRBY AT 553 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3133 9114 3134 9115 3161 9115 3161 9084
      3136 9073 3134 9087 3135 9098 3133 9098
      3134 9102 3133 9103 3132 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 168DEG 7KT 3148 9093

JC

MSZ061-142335-
FRANKLIN MS-
607 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
607 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF MCCALL CREEK AT
607 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3155 9078 3153 9063 3136 9067 3144 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 207DEG 5KT 3148 9071

JC

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