Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1035 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS STRATIFORM RAIN BAND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED WITH
A SMALL SECONDARY TSTORM CLUSTER SHIFTING SE ACROSS EC MS AT THIS
TIME. THIS CLUSTER HAS SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR.

LATEST VIS SHOWS MORNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOSING OPACITY AND SHIFTING
EAST ALLOWING FOR INSOLATION TO RESUME ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GREATER TEMP AND THUS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD AND INCREASING ALTO DECK
HAS BUILT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT IN N-CNTRL AR AS S/WV
SHEAR AXIS AIDS IN BETTER DEEP-LYR LIFT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO BE THE
INITIATION AREA AND WITH SHOWERS/STORMS PROPAGATING SE INTO THE
DELTA AND NRN AREAS THIS AFTN AS MODIFIED KJAN SOUNDING INDICATES
~2200 SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WITH ENOUGH SUPPORTIVE SHEAR
TO AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AREAS WITH SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH.
MAIN RISKS CONTINUE TO BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL
IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS FROM 1PM-8PM.

CONCERNING OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS...HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH THE SE WARMING QUICKLY DUE TO NO CLOUD
COVER AND GTR BEING THE SLOWEST. MAX TEMPS WERE REDUCED A DEGREE OR
SO GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN ZONES
THROUGH NOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE 1-8PM WINDOW.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA COVERAGE WILL EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
HWY 82 CORRIDOR WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING S THRU THE AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING. ISOLD SEVERE TSRA(GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL) WILL BE PSBL AS
THIS ACTIVITY PASSES. VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART BUT A
TEMPORARY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN WILL BE PSBL WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WRLY AND THEN NRLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  63  84  56 /  65  33   2   0
MERIDIAN      87  63  84  55 /  65  37   2   0
VICKSBURG     88  62  84  56 /  57  26   1   0
HATTIESBURG   89  64  88  60 /  46  28   9   5
NATCHEZ       86  64  85  61 /  45  26   2   0
GREENVILLE    86  58  81  57 /  62  21   1   0
GREENWOOD     86  60  81  53 /  63  22   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
222000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
249 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

MSZ059-060-211940-
ADAMS MS-JEFFERSON MS-
212 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 212 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3185 9134 3178 9120 3167 9132 3175 9137
      3174 9127 3176 9126 3177 9129 3176 9132
      3176 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 307DEG 12KT 3176 9133

MRM

MSZ042-043-211945-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
217 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
217 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BENTON AT 217 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN YAZOO AND CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3271 8986 3252 9006 3285 9045 3299 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 311DEG 20KT 3286 9030

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 E ITTA BENA           33.50N 90.29W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL

&&

CME

MSZ053-054-059-212045-
JEFFERSON MS-COPIAH MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
315 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF PATTISON AT 316 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CLAIBORNE...SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH AND EASTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3177 9069 3163 9089 3188 9110 3200 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 321DEG 13KT 3187 9095