Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS AS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MOST ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ~6.5
DEG C/KM AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED
LAYER AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE
DEVELOPING COLD POOLS (AND ATTENDANT SVR WIND GUST RISK) WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO ACCELERATE THEM AS CLUSTERS OF CELLS ORGANIZE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL AND STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ARE STILL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ACCELERATION TAKES PLACE...
THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKEN THE
PACE ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND A SUBSIDENT DRY AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW. SO LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL END TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARKLAMISS. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME LOOK
TO BE SLIM AND CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S DURING MID-
WEEK...CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S HEADING INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA XPCTD ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN
AND INTO THE EVENING. ISOLD SEVERE TSRA(60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL) WILL BE PSBL AS THIS ACTIVITY PASSES. VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART BUT A TEMPORARY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN WILL
BE PSBL WITHIN TSRA. TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02Z WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND XPCTD INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST
SITES AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER IFR CIG/VIS WILL BE PSBL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AT HBG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WRLY AND THEN NRLY TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  83  54  87 /  34   3   0   7
MERIDIAN      58  82  52  87 /  38   5   0   7
VICKSBURG     57  82  51  88 /  18   4   0   7
HATTIESBURG   61  86  55  89 /  36   4   5   5
NATCHEZ       61  82  56  86 /  28   3   0  11
GREENVILLE    59  79  54  86 /  10   4   0   7
GREENWOOD     57  79  51  85 /  10   3   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/19/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
222000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
249 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

LAZ016-MSZ047-212205-
WARREN MS-MADISON LA-
452 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

...STRONG STORM MOVING SOUTH ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER JUST WEST OF
VICKSBURG...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANSFORD AT
452 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH AND MOVING JUST WEST OF
VICKSBURG.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN WARREN COUNTY...AND EASTERN MADISON PARISH SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3226 9086 3219 9107 3242 9121 3254 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 319DEG 14KT 3241 9105

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
05/21/2012  E0.25 INCH       RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 E ITTA BENA           33.50N 90.29W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL

0320 PM     HAIL             WATERPROOF              31.81N 91.39W
05/21/2012  E0.88 INCH       TENSAS             LA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED BY TOWN HALL.

0320 PM     HAIL             WATERPROOF              31.81N 91.39W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       TENSAS             LA   PUBLIC

0330 PM     HAIL             1 N MENDENHALL          31.98N 89.87W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       SIMPSON            MS   OTHER FEDERAL

            PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL...REPORTED BY NSSL SHAVE PROJECT.

0331 PM     HAIL             2 N MENDENHALL          31.99N 89.87W
05/21/2012  E0.75 INCH       SIMPSON            MS   911 CALL CENTER

            PENNY HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NO ESTIMATED SPEED AT THIS
            TIME...OCCURRING NEAR HIGHWAY 13 AND STRONG RIVER
            ROAD...JUST NORTH OF MENDENHALL...REPORTED BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE VICKSBURG          32.39N 90.80W
05/21/2012                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND OAK RIDGE.

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
05/21/2012                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN VICKSBURG...POWER LINES DOWN AS
            WELL...ONE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE.

0400 PM     HAIL             VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
05/21/2012  E0.25 INCH       WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA HAIL DOWNTOWN VICKSBURG...REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

0409 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE BOLTON            32.31N 90.44W
05/21/2012                   HINDS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN BETWEEN BOLTON AND RAYMOND

0411 PM     HAIL             5 NNE FRENCH CAMP       33.36N 89.37W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHOCTAW            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN THE SIMPSON COMMUNITY

0415 PM     HAIL             3 S JACKSON             32.28N 90.21W
05/21/2012  E0.88 INCH       HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN SOUTH JACKSON

0426 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E YOKENA              32.17N 90.87W
05/21/2012                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE
            COUNTY...ONE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE.

0430 PM     HAIL             4 SSW ACKERMAN          33.26N 89.20W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHOCTAW            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GOUND
            LIGHTNING. REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0440 PM     HAIL             3 E DERMOTT             33.53N 91.39W
05/21/2012  E1.75 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR DERMOTT. REPORTED BY
            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

0440 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
05/21/2012  E0.25 INCH       RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0445 PM     HAIL             2 WSW FLORENCE          32.14N 90.16W
05/21/2012  E1.00 INCH       RANKIN             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ON WHITES ROAD

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
514 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW WISNER            32.00N 91.72W
05/21/2012                   FRANKLIN           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD IN AREA NEAR WISNER

&&

GERARD

MSZ064-212300-
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
521 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
521 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WERE LOCATED BETWEEN HEBRON AND
BASSFIELD. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3167 8982 3153 8966 3147 8983 3160 8996
      3176 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 325DEG 12KT 3158 8982

MRM

MSZ018-212245-
BOLIVAR MS-
527 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

...STRONG STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST BOLIVAR COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCOTT AT 527
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN BOLIVAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3378 9108 3359 9092 3353 9104 3353 9117
      3358 9120 3359 9115 3361 9114 3365 9122
      3369 9123 3371 9116 3367 9111 3368 9104
      3371 9107 3370 9112 3373 9115 3379 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 328DEG 16KT 3369 9115

EEC