Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE. ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POPS AND TEMPS.

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED MIDLEVEL WEAK LOW
OVER LOUISIANA. IT WAS BRINGING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
REACH UP TOWARD THE MIDLEVELS. THIS WAS NOTED BY AREA RADAR COVERAGE
AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. AREA MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIP WATER OF
1.7 AT JAN...AS WELL AS 1.9 AT LIX. AREAS VADS WERE ALSO
SHOWING SOME GOOD FLOW OF AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BELOW 700 MB...WHICH
WILL AID IN MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS ALSO HAVE
VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 52...DECAPE OF AROUND 1200. LAPSE RATES WERE
FAIRLY DECENT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRR SHOWS THAT MAX
UPDRAFTS WILL BE APPROACHING CRITICAL VELOCITIES WHICH WILL AID IN
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS.
SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE HWO
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH PWATS HITTING AROUND 2 INCHES. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE MORNING IN AREAS THAT GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL. THE SREF PROBS
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DECIDE ON THAT. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.  FOR THURSDAY
THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THE
SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WELL AS DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER.
THE BEST PWATS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. SO WILL PUT THE BEST POPS
IN THE EAST HALF. DO NOT SEE ANY STRONG STORM ISSUES FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. THE RAINS WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL. SREF PROBS ARE NOT TOO
BAD FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT IN THE GRIDS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND TO AROUND 90 AGAIN WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV
GUIDANCE. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON POPS./17/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS THINKING IN THE LONG TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. MODELS STILL SHOW A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE
GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MAC GUIDANCE THEN TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAWIDE. DESPITE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE BROADER WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER THAN THE ECMWF
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER ALABAMA AND
GENERATES CONVECTION OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING PRIME HEATING
SUNDAY. WL ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN IN THE EAST.
THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE SLOWER GFS IS WELL NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OZARKS.
THE GFS ACTUALLY STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY
BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
17/22/

&&

.AVIATION...GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SCT/NUM
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTN. TURBULENT LOW TO MID-LVL
WINDS INVOF STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AS STORM TOPS
REACH UPWARDS OF 45 KFT. SFC GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN NEAR 10 KT WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS TO 17 KT. CONVECTIVE GUSTS INVOF STORMS COULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 35 KT AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REDUCE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
GO TO NEAR CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO MID-MNG THURS. POTENCY OF
TSRA WILL REDUCE THROUGH 03/01Z WITH LINGERING SHRA ACROSS N/E TAF
SITES 03/04Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS
PROBABLE FOR ERN SITES /KGTR/MEI/HBG/ AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN BUT TSRA
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  86  69  90 /  43  18   3  10
MERIDIAN      66  85  67  90 /  74  43   5  10
VICKSBURG     67  88  66  90 /  26  10   3  10
HATTIESBURG   68  87  68  91 /  48  28  10  10
NATCHEZ       68  88  67  88 /  25  14   6  10
GREENVILLE    69  87  69  92 /  25  10   3  10
GREENWOOD     68  86  69  91 /  38  18   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/28/22/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031830-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
129 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG AND ONE OR TWO BREIFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

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