Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM FEELS A BIT LIKE FORECASTING FOR SUMMER AS THE PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION...WHICH THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS.

SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING AS REMNANTS OF SUNDAY EVENINGS LINEAR
COMPLEX LINGER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT IT IS ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS...THERE COULD BE A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW THAT COULD AID IN THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS AGREED UPON
BY MODEL AND HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY THE BEST MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PW VALUES AROUND
1.4-1.5 INCHES. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE DELTA REGION
AND PW VALUES THERE SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 0.5-1.0 INCHES BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1900-2000
J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE 26-27C AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND
1200-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA SE OF THE TRACE AND THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE HAZARDS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO IF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AS WINDS MAY NOT SLACKEN OFF ENOUGH
AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED
CEILINGS/VIS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY SREF PROBS AS WELL.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE OF A CAP AROUND 850MB TUESDAY TO PRECLUDE
STRONG STORMS...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATE WILL EXIST IN
THE EVENT THAT ONE COULD BREAK THROUGH. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AND AGAIN ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS
CONCEIVABLE...IF NOT MORE LIKELY GIVEN SFC FLOW LOOKS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF DECOUPLING. /28/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH LONG TERM WITH
MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS
/EARLY EVENINGS. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT AND INCREASING SUBTLE
INDICATIONS OF S/WV'S EMBEDDED WITHIN OVERALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
GOM/SE CONUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY MID WEEK WILL FEATURE A H5 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SETTING UP OVER TROPICAL MEXICO AND SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST OVER
GOM/SE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF LONG TERM PERIOD. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SW FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING WILL SHUNT ALL MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY WELL NORTH OF REGION. WITH LATE
SPRING TO EARLY SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A
FORECAST OF SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY AND SUBTLE
S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER
SE CONUS.

RIGHT OF THE BAT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SHOWER/TSTORM COMPLEX
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW/N AREAS AS ENHANCED THETA-E BOUNDARY IN
PROXIMITY TO A S/WV SKIRTS THROUGH CNTRL AR. LOW-LVL CONVERGENT AND
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENT MASS FIELDS HOWEVER DON'T INDICATE A STRONG
ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OR SIGNAL OF THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. BY WED
AFTN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS SHOULD GET GOING FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A SEA-BREEZE WITH ALL ACTIVITY WANING
BY THE EVENING HOURS AS STABILIZATION OCCURS. THIS DIURNAL ACTIVITY
WILL TYPICALLY BE THE NORM THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY WITH SUBTLE
DAILY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS OR SUPPRESSIONS (I.E. S/WV'S AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW VS. LOWER MLCAPE VALUES DUE TO INSOLATION
LIMITATION AND CAPPING ISSUES).

OF PARTICULAR NOTE...BOTH GFS/EC DEPICT A POTENTIALLY ENHANCING S/WV
TROUGH WITH SOME H7-H5 HEIGHT FALLS TO BRUSH NRN AREAS LATE
THU/EARLY FRI THAT COULD AID IN EXTENDING RAIN/TSTORMS TEMPORALLY
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS FURTHER CONTINUES SW/V LIFT FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME
BETTER LOW-LVL FLOW IN PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH NICKEL/PENNY-SIZED HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH BEING THE MAIN RISKS. THIS RISK COULD
ARISE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTN OVER FAR NW DELTA AREAS AS BOTH GFS/EC
SHOW CONTINUED SW/V TROUGHING WITH LIMITED CAPPING AND ~1300 J/KG
MLCAPE PRESENT.

BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...OVERALL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SOME STRENGTHENING/NWD AMPLIFICATION THAT COULD LIMIT
OVERALL SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST WRN AREAS. A LARGE PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY BY MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS A STRONG
TROUGH BECOMES DEEPLY AMPLIFIED...SPELLING A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX
EPISODE ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES. THE GFS/EC DIFFER ON EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED H5 TROUGH AND THUS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH NEXT TUES-WED
TIME-FRAME. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR CATS THIS MORNING AS LEFTOVER SHOWERS
CONTINUE. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING TO VFR.
ADDITIONAL MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS ISO-SCT STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MOST LIKELY COULD AFFECT
KJAN/KHKS/KGTR/KHBG/KMEI BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY OCCURRING AT TAF
SITE IS LOW AND FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  61  80  62 /  31  19  18   6
MERIDIAN      82  61  82  59 /  47  30  23   6
VICKSBURG     81  60  79  61 /  24  12  14   6
HATTIESBURG   82  63  82  61 /  47  22  18  11
NATCHEZ       78  61  79  62 /  28  11  16   8
GREENVILLE    81  60  79  60 /  19  11  12   4
GREENWOOD     81  60  80  61 /  24  19  13   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>042-047-053-059-060-130215-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
914 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 11
PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE THE MAIN RISKS AS A LINE
OF STORMS SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN RISK SHOULD DIMINISH BY 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MSZ026>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-130215-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
914 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

99

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MSZ072-073-120920-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
352 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PICKWICK TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANDY HOOK AT 352 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR AND SOUTHERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3101 8951 3100 8955 3100 8983 3107 8985
      3107 8992 3112 8995 3113 9002 3116 9001
      3125 8948 3114 8937 3100 8938 3100 8941
      3097 8944 3097 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 253DEG 27KT 3110 8989 3101 8982
          3079 8993

JA

MSZ073-074-120955-
LAMAR MS-FORREST MS-
428 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF BAXTERVILLE TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LUMBERTON AT 427 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN FORREST AND LAMAR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3099 8948 3101 8951 3100 8958 3120 8966
      3128 8965 3143 8949 3144 8929 3131 8924
      3100 8939 3100 8941 3097 8944 3097 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 223DEG 28KT 3124 8957 3106 8950
          3079 8964

JA