Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT.

FIRST OFF FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE BAND RUNNING
FROM KTXK SSW TO NEAR KGLS. MOST INTENSE BAND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...AREAS WITHIN THE BAND HAVE EXHIBITED BOW/LEWP
TYPE STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY FEATURE OVER EC TX NE OF KLFK WHICH
HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT ROTATION/MARC. BASED ON SETUP OF STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER LOW AND INCREASING SFC BASED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER LA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
SHOW BOW/LEWP CHARACTERSTICS WITH CORRESPONDING RISK OF SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. BEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE
OVER NE LA PARISHES WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEST OVERLAY BETWEEN STRONGEST
SBCAPE...CURRENTLY 1000-1500 J/KG S OF HWY 84...AND MAX IN WIND SHEAR
PULLING THROUGH AR. EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
REACHING FAR WRN AREAS 22Z-00Z. THREAT OF SEVERE WX SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND FORCING DIMINISHES.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAINFALL...AS MENTIONED IN HPC QPF DISCUSSION EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAINFALL GIVEN TALL
CAPES AND PW VALUES AROUND 200 PCT OF NORMAL. HIGH RES MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH TOTALS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY NW
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1-3"...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHERE IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA GETTING SOME LOCALIZED EVEN HEAVIER
TOTALS GIVEN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND MCS IS
LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL. THIS IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH CORFIDI VECTORS GET VERY SMALL...AND HIGH RES NMM
MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 5+ INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THE LOWER DELTA.
NOT READY TO JUMP ON THOSE KIND OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY AS
850 MB FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT
EXTREME. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.

AS FAR AS MONDAY...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN A BAND
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE IN THE MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CAUSES DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY...AREA WILL REMAIN IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250 MB JET...AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH TO HELP
CONVECTION REENERGIZE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING...EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND GOOD DCAPE VALUES. COULD SEE SOME GOOD HAIL
GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LARGE CAPE VALUES ABOVE FREEZING
LEVEL. WOULD EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE RISK TO BE ALONG/SE OF TRACE
WHERE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT IF SFC FLOW CAN FULLY DECOUPLE. MAV MOS IS
HINTING AT VERY LOW CIG/VSBYS BUT DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THAT YET
GIVEN DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST BY MODELS.

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN OVER AREA FOR LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MORE LIKE LATE
SPRING WITH UPPER RIDGING PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
MAIN PRECIP THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD COME AROUND MIDWEEK WHEN
GFS/EC IMPLY THAT OLD BOUNDARY COULD GET REENERGIZED INTO SUPPORTING
AN MCS ALONG IT NW OF US WHICH WOULD ROLL ESE IN GRADIENT OF THETA-E.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES
OVERALL SITUATION QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GUSTS TAPER OFF NEAR/AFTER 01Z...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS XPCTD THRU THE NIGHT. CIG WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED
NORTH IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH. A TREND TOWARD IFR CIG
WILL BEGIN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT HOWEVER SFC VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE WINDS. +SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER NE TX WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NE LA/SE AR AND THE DELTA
REGION OF MS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTAIN SEVERE TSRA HOWEVER THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.
LINGERING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT PRIMARILY N OF I-20. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  79  60  79 /  77  46  25  22
MERIDIAN      61  81  59  80 /  54  60  39  31
VICKSBURG     64  79  59  79 /  84  39  14  15
HATTIESBURG   64  82  62  82 /  27  53  33  37
NATCHEZ       62  78  60  78 /  74  33  15  16
GREENVILLE    61  79  59  80 /  99  39  10  11
GREENWOOD     62  79  59  80 /  92  54  19  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-121930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A CLEVELAND...TO LAKE PROVIDENCE...TO ACME
LOUISIANA LINE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER
SIZE. TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A NATCHEZ...TO VICKSBURG...TO
GREENWOOD LINE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THIS PERIOD AND ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE SAME SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-121930-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK/AG

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ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-112200-ASHLEY AR-CHICOT
AR-TENSAS LA-RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-FRANKLIN LA-EAST CARROLL
LA-CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-MADISON LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
357 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA...

AT 355 PM AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
THE LINE WAS ADVANCING TO THE EAST AT AROUND 35 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINE THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE.
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND WEST CARROLL...MADISON...
...CATAHOULA...CONCORDIA...EAST CARROLL...FRANKLIN...MOREHOUSE
...RICHLAND AND TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3340 9196 3343 9113 3292 9121 3299 9113
      3299 9111 3262 9115 3263 9102 3249 9100
      3249 9112 3229 9098 3163 9152 3106 9165
      3120 9170 3122 9199 3193 9201 3210 9188
      3219 9201 3265 9192 3270 9206 3321 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 204DEG 33KT 3277 9134

MRM

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-112300-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-TENSAS LA-RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-FRANKLIN LA-
EAST CARROLL LA-CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-MADISON LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
458 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA...

AT 455 PM AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THE LINE WAS ADVANCING TO THE EAST AT AROUND 35 MPH. AHEAD OF THE LINE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...WHILE THE BROKEN
LINE WILL AFFECT THE AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING.
WITH THE LINE THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE. TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND WEST CARROLL...MADISON...
CATAHOULA...CONCORDIA...EAST CARROLL...FRANKLIN...MOREHOUSE...
RICHLAND AND TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3340 9196 3343 9113 3292 9121 3299 9113
      3299 9111 3262 9115 3263 9102 3249 9100
      3249 9112 3229 9098 3163 9152 3106 9165
      3120 9170 3122 9199 3193 9201 3210 9188
      3219 9201 3265 9192 3270 9206 3321 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 204DEG 33KT 3335 9104

MRM

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-120000-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-TENSAS LA-RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-FRANKLIN LA-
EAST CARROLL LA-CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-MADISON LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
559 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

AT 555 PM AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LINE WAS ADVANCING TO THE EAST AT AROUND 35 MPH.
AHEAD OF THE LINE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BY 7 PM...WHILE THE BROKEN LINE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. WITH THE LINE THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND WEST CARROLL...MADISON...
CATAHOULA...CONCORDIA...EAST CARROLL...FRANKLIN...MOREHOUSE...
RICHLAND AND TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3340 9196 3343 9113 3292 9121 3299 9113
      3299 9111 3262 9115 3263 9102 3249 9100
      3249 9112 3229 9098 3163 9152 3106 9165
      3120 9170 3122 9199 3193 9201 3210 9188
      3219 9201 3265 9192 3270 9206 3321 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 047DEG 99KT 3162 9311

MRM

LAZ015-023-024-120010-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA LA-
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENTERPRISE AT 641 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL CATAHOULA...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3193 9191 3195 9191 3197 9190 3204 9191
      3205 9192 3223 9180 3212 9154 3185 9180
      3192 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 213DEG 33KT 3198 9183

MRM