River Flood Warning 14, NWS Jackson, MS

182 
WGUS84 KJAN 120147
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
847 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  BIG BLACK RIVER AT WEST AFFECTING ATTALA AND HOLMES COUNTIES 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-130747-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120313T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120311T2300Z.120312T0045Z.120312T1200Z.NO/
847 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  13.0 SUN 08 PM  12.7  12.4  12.0    FALLING   

$$

MSC007-051-130747-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120315T1800Z/
/WSTM6.1.ER.120313T1536Z.120314T0000Z.120315T0300Z.NO/
847 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLACK RIVER AT WEST
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY 
  MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY TUESDAY 
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE 
  MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LOWLANDS AND AGRICULTURAL LAND NEAR THE 
  RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER BIG BLACK RIVER
WEST           15  13.3 SUN 08 PM  14.7  15.4  14.7  15.5 07 PM 03/13

$$

164 
WGUS84 KJAN 121604
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1103 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-121633-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120313T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120311T2300Z.120312T0715Z.120312T1130Z.NO/
1103 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA.
* AT 10:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  6:30 AM MONDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 12.7 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  12.9 MON 11 AM  12.7  12.3  11.9 FALLING

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED GRIDS AND RAN ZONE UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
THE LAST 2 HOURS...AND WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHRA CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT POPS AS HIGH AS WHAT WE HAD GOING. RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BAND OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS IN THE
22Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. 15Z HRRR AND 12Z HIGHRES NMM-WRF IN PARTICULAR
ARE RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING WELL DEFINED BOWING SEGMENTS
AND SOLID UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO NE LA AND
SE AR. CURRENT HWO AND GRAPHICASTS SEEM TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GUSTS TAPER OFF NEAR/AFTER 01Z...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS XPCTD THRU THE NIGHT. CIG WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED
NORTH IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH. A TREND TOWARD IFR CIG
WILL BEGIN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT HOWEVER SFC VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE WINDS. +SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER NE TX WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NE LA/SE AR AND THE DELTA
REGION OF MS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTAIN SEVERE TSRA HOWEVER THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.
LINGERING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT PRIMARILY N OF I-20. /BK/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AG/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-121930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
224 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A CLEVELAND...TO LAKE PROVIDENCE...TO ACME
LOUISIANA LINE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER
SIZE. TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE
TORNADO RISK IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND MOREHOUSE
PARISH IN LOUISIANA.

OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A NATCHEZ...TO VICKSBURG...TO
GREENWOOD LINE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THIS PERIOD AND ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE SAME SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-121930-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
224 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK