Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EUPORA...TO VICKSBURG...TO JUST WEST OF
NATCHEZ. LOCATIONS MOSTLY NORTH OF I-20 SEEING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-20. AT
THIS POINT...STORM SEVERITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT BAY BUT THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR EXIST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
WIND GUSTS WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCATIONS YESTERDAY IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST SAW ABOUT 2-3 INCHES AND HAD ISSUES WITH FLOODING.
TODAYS RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THESE ISSUES AND THIS IS THE AREA
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
LOCATIONS THAT SAW A LITTLE LESS RAIN ARE ALREADY BEING IMPACTED BY
THE RAINS TODAY WHICH COULD ADD UP TO 2 TO 3 MORE INCHES.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MAINLY LOCATIONS THAT SAW GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN THE AREAS
THAT ARE BEING IMPACTED BY RAINS THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE WAA REGIME. HAVE ACTUALLY
RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE IN THE PINE BELT...WHERE YESTERDAYS RAINFALL
ELUDED THEM AND WILL BE SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY SEE
RAINFALL AND WILL BE ABLE TO WARM DECENTLY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WEATHER
GRIDS TO TRY TO FIT WHAT IS ONGOING AND EXPECTED AND REMOVED DEFINITE
THUNDER TO MORE OF A CHANCE WORDING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WHERE
LIGHTNING IS LESS FREQUENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS BEING SENT OUT. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY FOR AREAS THAT
ARE AHEAD OF THE LARGE PRECIP REGION AND LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WHERE +RA OR TSRA
EXIST AND WILL TRY AND TIME THAT ACCORDINGLY. AREAS AHEAD OF THE
RAIN WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT MORE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOOK FOR THOSE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR UNTIL RAIN MOVES IN. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AND WET TODAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE OZARKS AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
EAST TEXAS. A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED ALONG FRONT IN
TEXAS AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ARKANSAS. WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. BOTH THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST MOST
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING BUT MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR TODAY. ENOUGH PARAMETERS REMAIN TO CARRY
MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. CLOUD COVER AND MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT HEATING
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER
70S. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER FOR HIGHS
TODAY. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSER TO THE NAM
GUIDANCE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AGAIN
TODAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT EXPERIENCED RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE FOR MORNING
LOWS SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
AT SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT ALL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END WELL BEFORE NOON.
NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA
BY MONDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING AND COOLER TEMPS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DAY ON TAP...BUT BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS BELOW AN INCH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CUTTING OFF A LOW NEAR BAJA
MEXICO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVE IT
ACROSS FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS
OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FEEL THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN GULF WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. HAVE DECIDED TO CUT POPS LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO THIS...AS
GFS MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  51  60  38 / 100  88  10   6
MERIDIAN      73  53  64  38 /  89  90  16   7
VICKSBURG     72  49  59  38 / 100  49   5   4
HATTIESBURG   76  55  66  41 /  83  90  20  10
NATCHEZ       73  50  60  40 / 100  68  16   7
GREENVILLE    65  46  57  37 / 100  34   5   4
GREENWOOD     68  48  58  37 / 100  51   5   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ027-028-
     035>037-040>044-047>050-053-054-059>061.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ008-009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

28/CME/22/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1119 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026-MSZ027-028-035>037-040>044-047>050-053-
054-059>061-051730-
WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
1119 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
FRIDAYS RAINFALL...THIS WILL AGGRAVATE ANY FLASH FLOODING OR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 6PM.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THOUGH A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-055>058-062>066-072>074-051730-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1119 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-051730-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
WASHINGTON-
1119 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

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