Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AND WET TODAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE OZARKS AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
EAST TEXAS. A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED ALONG FRONT IN
TEXAS AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ARKANSAS. WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. BOTH THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST MOST
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING BUT MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR TODAY. ENOUGH PARAMETERS REMAIN TO CARRY
MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. CLOUD COVER AND MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT HEATING
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER
70S. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER FOR HIGHS
TODAY. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSER TO THE NAM
GUIDANCE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AGAIN
TODAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT EXPERIENCED RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE FOR MORNING
LOWS SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
AT SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT ALL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END WELL BEFORE NOON.
NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA
BY MONDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING AND COOLER TEMPS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DAY ON TAP...BUT BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS BELOW AN INCH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CUTTING OFF A LOW NEAR BAJA
MEXICO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVE IT
ACROSS FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS
OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FEEL THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN GULF WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. HAVE DECIDED TO CUT POPS LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO THIS...AS
GFS MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED FROM NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI BACK INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS LINE WAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NEAR GLH BY 20Z AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF HBG BY 08Z SUNDAY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS IN PRIMARILY THE 500-1500FT RANGE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND BELOW 4KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY IN RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS AND IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  51  60  38 /  93  88  10   6
MERIDIAN      74  53  64  38 /  86  90  16   7
VICKSBURG     73  49  59  38 /  92  49   5   4
HATTIESBURG   77  55  66  41 /  70  90  20  10
NATCHEZ       72  50  60  40 /  92  68  16   7
GREENVILLE    72  46  57  37 /  92  34   5   4
GREENWOOD     73  48  58  37 /  92  51   5   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ047-053-059-060.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ015-016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

MME/15/MME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047-053-059-060-051515-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-
CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
908 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. GIVEN ALREADY VERY SATURATED SOILS FROM
FRIDAYS RAINFALL...THIS WILL AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-
072>074-051515-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
908 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE FROM ABOUT NOON TIL 5
PM. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IN LOCATIONS THAT
SAW DECENT RAINFALL FRIDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

LAZ015-023-041540-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
859 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
859 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 17 MILES WEST OF LIDDIEVILLE TO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIDDIEVILLE AT 859 AM CST...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3226 9201 3228 9200 3231 9164 3207 9149
      3200 9150 3196 9153 3194 9151 3193 9160
      3197 9160 3197 9164 3192 9168 3192 9182
      3199 9191 3208 9193 3210 9188 3216 9190
      3217 9199 3220 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 263DEG 30KT 3218 9212 3197 9199

CME