Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
418 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE LOW
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A FLAT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE AREA HAVE RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION
INTENSIFIED TO OUR SW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE UPPER WAVE
LIFTED INTO LA. SPC WRF AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS SRN ZONES TODAY. THE SPC WRF SOLUTION
LOOKS REASONABLE KEEPING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GENERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY THAT SHOW LOW LEVEL
HELICITIES DECREASING FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS MORE WLY...LEAVING A SWATH OF BETTER LOW LEVEL HELICITIES
ACROSS SRN ZONES BY 18Z. WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE FROM NW AS WIND FLOW VEERS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LONGER WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER 500
MB TEMPS POSSIBLY LAGGING BEHIND THE BETTER MOISTURE. WILL FOLLOW
THE TREND OF THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND ADD MENTION OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER NWRN ZONES TODAY...THE
PRIMARY RISK LOOKING TO BE HAIL AND POSSIBLY WIND AS CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE.

WE WILL SEE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND DEVELOPING NLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER AND LOWER TROUGH. SLY FLOW
RESUMES AT 850 MB THURSDAY BUT SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
E/SELY AS A SURFACE WAVE LIFTS INLAND FROM THE GULF...THE GFS BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH MODELS INDICATE FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE DAY WHILE THE EURO
MAINTAINS LOW LEVEL RIDGING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN INTO CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY BUT UNDERCUT
MAV MOS VALUES FOR NOW. 850 MB FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TX. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW MAV MOS TREND FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOS NUMBERS LOOK A BIT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAKER FORCING PAINTED BY THE EURO
AND THE GFS TREND TO OVERDO NIGHTTIME POPS...SO WILL GO WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER GFS ENSEMBLE AVG MOS POPS WHICH STILL PAINT LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...HUMID AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI/SAT BEFORE COOLER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS IN FORECAST
EVOLUTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

FOR FRIDAY MORNING...THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS INFILTRATE NORTHWARD
DUE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEEP AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
PRESENCE OF 800-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND A S/WV EJECTING AHEAD OF THE
NOW CLOSED CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT
COVERAGE. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI LINE COULD BECOME
STRONG AND SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING 0-1 KM SRH VALUES INVOF
600-800 J/KG MUCAPE FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

A QUICK BREAK IN THE RAIN COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AS S/WV PULLS
OFF BUT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PROBABLE TO RETURN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE SAME POTENTIAL HAZARDS AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...HAVE BLENDED OPS GFS/GEM/DGEX WITH THE EC
ROUGHLY 70/30. THE OPS GFS/DGEX CONTINUE TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FILLED CLOSED H5 LOW BEING PHASED IN WITH A STRONG
VORTICITY LOBE ACROSS THE NE CONUS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PROGRESSIVE
NATURE DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE RAIN
SHOWERS. THE EC CONTINUES TO HANG BACK THE CLOSED LOW OVER CNTRL
KANSAS VS OPS GFS/DGEX FARTHER ENE OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
THIS POSITIONING ALLOWS THE STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX ACROSS THE NE CONUS
TO COMPLETELY MISS THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THE EC
PATTERN DICTATES THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
AND DO SO VERY SLOWLY. THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS
WITH A PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT BUT
SHOWS THE H5 CLOSED LOW NOT PHASING WITH THE VORT LOBE OVER NE CONUS
AND DOES LINGER PRECIP THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY ACROSS SE AREAS.
FURTHERMORE...NEARLY ALL INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE
OPS GFS SOLUTION...THUS A 70/30 WEIGHTING WAS APPLIED TO THE SUN-WED
TIME FRAME.

THAT BEING STATED...HAVE ADDED IN SHOWER WORDING FOR SUNDAY MORNING
AND SOME THUNDER WORDING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
SLOWER TIMING PER EC FOR ERN AREAS OF MS. LOW TEMPS WERE ALSO
INCREASED OVER MEXMOS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SUN MORNING. FOR
MON-WED...COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON PAR
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ONCE
AGAIN WED. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN AND TSTMS THAT EXTENDED FROM
SWRN ZONES NEWD ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...DECREASING LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND ENDING BY SUNSET. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  51  75  60 /  65  11  22  45
MERIDIAN      74  52  75  58 /  66  15  19  38
VICKSBURG     74  52  75  59 /  37  10  22  47
HATTIESBURG   77  55  77  59 /  69  31  26  57
NATCHEZ       73  56  74  61 /  70  14  32  59
GREENVILLE    74  54  74  56 /  25  10   7  30
GREENWOOD     74  54  75  57 /  36  10   7  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/ALLEN

ZCZC JANWRKHWO ALL
TTAA00 KJAN 011118

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ028>033-036>039-042>055-021100-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
455 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE HAZARDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LAZ024-026-MSZ056>066-072>074-021100-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
455 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF A FEW
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...STORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE HAZARDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>027-034-035-040-041-021100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-
455 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03/ALLEN

LAZ026-010940-
CONCORDIA LA-
241 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACME AT 241 AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3103 9165 3104 9172 3114 9173 3119 9169
      3123 9181 3129 9182 3133 9187 3150 9152
      3137 9147 3137 9152 3143 9155 3141 9158
      3139 9158 3129 9151 3126 9156 3126 9165
      3119 9158 3111 9162 3105 9155 3097 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 0841Z 242DEG 26KT 3116 9180

OLB

MSZ062-063-011035-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
402 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER ENTERPRISE AT 403 AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3161 9054 3171 9030 3170 9026 3171 9025
      3173 9020 3175 9016 3175 9010 3155 8997
      3149 8996 3134 9032 3134 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 242DEG 25KT 3149 9035

OLB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

MSZ056-065-066-011205-
SMITH MS-JONES MS-COVINGTON MS-
535 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLLINS TO 9 MILES WEST
OF SANFORD AT 535 AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN SMITH
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3151 8959 3152 8960 3153 8960 3155 8962
      3158 8970 3172 8975 3192 8932 3181 8932
      3156 8924 3143 8951 3143 8958
TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 240DEG 33KT 3168 8961 3151 8955

JA