Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Jackson, MS

346 
WWUS54 KJAN 012300
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

MSC011-133-012330-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-120201T2330Z/
SUNFLOWER MS-BOLIVAR MS-
500 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST
FOR BOLIVAR AND NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALLIGATOR TO 7 MILES WEST OF
BEULAH MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINSTONVILLE...PACE...MOUND BAYOU...MERIGOLD...ROME...RENOVA...
PARCHMAN...CLEVELAND...BOYLE AND DREW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 70 MPH CAN SERIOUSLY DAMAGE MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS...
AND CAUSE ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES. NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES MAY OCCUR...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THE HAIL BEING PRODUCED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY
DAMAGE CARS AND ROOFS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT OF DOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE
A STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT
QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 9065 3398 9044 3378 9045 3365 9083
      3375 9115 3379 9113 3377 9103 3378 9099
      3384 9108 3385 9107 3413 9070 3413 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 287DEG 39KT 3406 9065 3376 9106

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...WATCHING TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE OTHER...WHICH IS A MORE
PRESSING CONCERN...IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND IS
BEING INSTIGATED BY A RATHER STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERN FRINGES
OF STORMS TO OUR SOUTH MAY STILL BRUSH THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THEIR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WELL OF THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY NOW
JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST HAS JUST RECENTLY PROMPTED ISSUANCE
OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. THESE LATTER STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE STABLE...BUT FORCING ALOFT PRODUCED BY THE
TROUGH IS STRONG AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OF MAINLY A HAIL RISK (SINCE RATHER WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT MAKE TORNADOES AT ALL LIKELY). THINKING IS THAT
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS LOOKING TO PUSH EAST DOWN THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD HOLD ON TO ENOUGH POTENCY TO
BRING DECENT CHANCE OF HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO CLEVELAND DOWN
TO GRENADA. FURTHER SOUTH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY WANES...WHILE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY OF THOSE STORMS WILL LOSE
INTENSITY MORE QUICKLY GROWS.

BUT EVEN IF ACTIVITY IS NOT SEVERE THIS EVENING...IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT MANY RESIDENTS OF THE ARKLAMISS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
WILL GET SOME FORM OF RAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR I-20 LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING MINOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ALONG THAT ZONE INTO EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE ONLY MARGINAL COOLING IN LOCATIONS GETTING
PASSED BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT ANTICIPATE THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT TO BE PIVOTING BACK UP NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR MAY HANG ON A BIT
TIGHTER IN EASTERN MS. DRIVING THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE A MASSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND
PROMOTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION GENERALLY HIGHEST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55. MODELS STILL SHOWING SERIOUS DISAGREEMENTS GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS...SPECIFICALLY ABOUT HOW
QUICKLY THIS TEMPORARILY CUT-OFF ENERGY PHASES BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS IDEA OF A
RELATIVELY QUICK PHASE AND SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DRYING ON
SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER AND LINGERS WETNESS
CONSIDERABLY LONGER. STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE GFS FORECAST FOR
NOW.

THE PREVIOUS LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ATTACHED
SINCE IT DEALS WITH SOME OF THESE LONG RANGE ISSUES IN GREATER
DETAIL. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

LONG TERM...HUMID AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI/SAT BEFORE COOLER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS IN FORECAST
EVOLUTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

FOR FRIDAY MORNING...THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS INFILTRATE NORTHWARD
DUE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEEP AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
PRESENCE OF 800-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND A S/WV EJECTING AHEAD OF THE
NOW CLOSED CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT
COVERAGE. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI LINE COULD BECOME
STRONG AND SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING 0-1 KM SRH VALUES INVOF
600-800 J/KG MUCAPE FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

A QUICK BREAK IN THE RAIN COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AS S/WV PULLS
OFF BUT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PROBABLE TO RETURN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE SAME POTENTIAL HAZARDS AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...HAVE BLENDED OPS GFS/GEM/DGEX WITH THE EC
ROUGHLY 70/30. THE OPS GFS/DGEX CONTINUE TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FILLED CLOSED H5 LOW BEING PHASED IN WITH A STRONG
VORTICITY LOBE ACROSS THE NE CONUS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PROGRESSIVE
NATURE DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE RAIN
SHOWERS. THE EC CONTINUES TO HANG BACK THE CLOSED LOW OVER CNTRL
KANSAS VS OPS GFS/DGEX FARTHER ENE OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
THIS POSITIONING ALLOWS THE STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX ACROSS THE NE CONUS
TO COMPLETELY MISS THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THE EC
PATTERN DICTATES THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
AND DO SO VERY SLOWLY. THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS
WITH A PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT BUT
SHOWS THE H5 CLOSED LOW NOT PHASING WITH THE VORT LOBE OVER NE CONUS
AND DOES LINGER PRECIP THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY ACROSS SE AREAS.
FURTHERMORE...NEARLY ALL INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE
OPS GFS SOLUTION...THUS A 70/30 WEIGHTING WAS APPLIED TO THE SUN-WED
TIME FRAME.

THAT BEING STATED...HAVE ADDED IN SHOWER WORDING FOR SUNDAY MORNING
AND SOME THUNDER WORDING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
SLOWER TIMING PER EC FOR ERN AREAS OF MS. LOW TEMPS WERE ALSO
INCREASED OVER MEXMOS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SUN MORNING. FOR
MON-WED...COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON PAR
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ONCE
AGAIN WED. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO SOME MVFR SCATTERED CIGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THAT
CONVECTION MAY COME DOWN TO THE I 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AROUND 5-7 KNOTS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  74  56  70 /  29  20  51  78
MERIDIAN      55  72  57  67 /  24  10  31  71
VICKSBURG     52  75  58  71 /  30  25  62  81
HATTIESBURG   57  76  57  73 /  33  17  43  69
NATCHEZ       55  76  61  73 /  23  31  63  74
GREENVILLE    55  70  57  69 /  28  14  58  90
GREENWOOD     56  71  59  68 /  40  13  42  84

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/17/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-022130-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
323 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE HAZARDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-
047-022130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
323 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE FIFTY FIVE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50 MPH AND NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE STORMS. THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
BASTROP...TO HOLLANDALE...TO GRENADA LINE AND STORMS IN THIS ZONE MAY
PRODUCE HAIL POTENTIALLY AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-022130-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-
323 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE FIFTY FIVE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH.
THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 60 MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE HAZARDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

LAZ007-015-012225-
RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-
353 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF START AT 353 PM CST...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN MOREHOUSE AND NORTHERN RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3268 9163 3267 9164 3267 9160 3258 9159
      3258 9158 3245 9159 3249 9193 3252 9191
      3259 9194 3264 9193 3265 9192 3266 9194
      3268 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 274DEG 25KT 3259 9196

BYB