Severe Thunderstorm Warning 335, NWS Jackson, MS

926 
WWUS54 KJAN 112312
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
612 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

MSC019-097-155-120000-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0335.000000T0000Z-120612T0000Z/
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
612 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CHOCTAW...MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EAST TO WEST
ALONG THE WEBSTER AND CALHOUN COUNTY LINE AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CUMBERLAND...CLARKSON...BELLEFONTAINE AND EMBRY BY 620 PM CDT...
  WALTHALL BY 625 PM CDT...
  LODI...MATHISTON AND EUPORA BY 630 PM CDT...
  SHERWOOD AND WINONA BY 635 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8902 3356 8909 3329 8909 3328 8911
      3324 8911 3325 8931 3328 8932 3329 8965
      3340 8965 3342 8978 3367 8978 3368 8951
      3373 8950 3374 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 002DEG 31KT 3372 8910 3372 8986

$$

JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BULK OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY WATCHING RATHER WELL-DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX (WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL) PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS HAS GENERALLY BEEN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH TO CONTINUE TO SEVERE RISK AS IT MOVES INTO THE HEART OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS EVENING COULD POSE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG RISK FOR WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY END UP PASSING EAST OF OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES
AND PARISHES AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTATION OF SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TURNING OF MOVEMENT VECTORS IT
WOULD BE PREMATURE AT THIS POINT TO DE-EMPHASIZE THE RISK THERE.
SOMEWHAT LESSER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS SOUTH OF I-20 LATE
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS SIG SVR POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS...BUT AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST. STILL
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER IN THE CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING-OUT A LITTLE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR TOMORROW THE SITUATION IS VERY COMPLEX AND HINGES UPON THE
SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THINGS TONIGHT. FOR EXAMPLE...MANY HIRES MODEL
RUNS WHICH HAVE MODELED CONVECTION THUS FAR QUITE WELL SO FAR INSIST
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE DISRUPTED SO MUCH BY
TONIGHTS CONVECTION THAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE LARGER-SCALE EUROPEAN MODEL (WHICH IS
SURPRISINGLY NOT DOING A TERRIBLE JOB WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION)
BREAKS OUT VERY ROBUST STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE
PLAUSIBLE SINCE THE RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR
WEST DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ERADICATED BY ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATER AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS WILL COME FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE A DIFFERENT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL GET GOING TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY SUBSEQUENTLY TRY TO PUSH INTO PART OF OUR REGION RELATIVELY
EARLY ON TUESDAY. THAT SAID...THE MOST LIKELY EVOLUTION WILL BE FOR
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO HOLD OFF IN OUR REGION UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE HIGH...SHEAR
MODERATE...AND THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER PRESENT.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND STALL BEFORE REACHING THE GULF COAST. A DRIER AIRMASS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE ARKLAMISS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATE SEWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE
AIRMASS AND PROMOTE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FROM
THURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR GETTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
PCPN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GETTING TO AROUND 90F WHILE LOWS DROP OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SCT-BKN 3-5KFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER NRN ZONES BY 6 PM WHEN A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL PROCEED TO THE S ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM AND MOVING INTO SRN ZONES BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
THE LINES OF STORMS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS 3-5K FEET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST INTENSE OVER NRN ZONES WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO 70-80 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED OVER SRN AREAS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 13Z. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  90 /  70  59  50  24
MERIDIAN      71  89  71  92 /  72  60  42  19
VICKSBURG     72  90  70  90 /  62  55  52  29
HATTIESBURG   73  91  73  92 /  60  48  30  35
NATCHEZ       73  89  71  89 /  49  40  32  46
GREENVILLE    71  90  69  89 /  83  50  32  17
GREENWOOD     70  90  68  89 /  88  47  30  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50/03/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-122030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS FROM 70 TO 80 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO TAKE COVER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LARGE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD END
BY 8 OR 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ047>058-122030-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 70 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE
COVER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD END BY 10 OR 11 PM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-122030-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03