Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.UPDATE...MORNING KJAN SOUNDING (AND MOST SURROUNDING REGIONAL
MORNING SOUNDINGS) SHOW AIRMASSES THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR OVERNIGHT. DEPLETED
MOISTURE AROUND 5 KFT CHARACTERIZING THESE AIRMASSES WILL TAKE A
GOOD DEAL OF HEATING/MIXING TO ALLEVIATE THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT THESE LEVELS ARE GENERALLY VERY WEAK.
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BE AN IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EVENTUALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED AND BECOME
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE). LATEST MODEL PROGS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMING MAXIMIZED IN THE HEART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON ARGUE
FOR BEST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE WORKED-OVER LOOK OF
THE MORNING ATMOSPHERE I HAVE DELAYED MAJOR POPS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE REGION AND ROSE TEMPS A BIT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES BASED LARGELY ON THIS DELAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY AREAS
HAVING MUCH OF A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES WILL BE AROUND HBG.

OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TODAY HOLDING OVERALL LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS QUITE VALID. LAPSE RATES VERIFIED LESS THAN
YESTERDAY BASED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BASED ON MIXED LAYER CAPE PEAKING
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND PERHAPS ENOUGH SHEAR TO ORGANIZE A
FEW LINE SEGMENTS BARING GUSTY WINDS. GOING HWO IS THEREFORE VALID.

BETTER FORCING COINCIDING WITH DEFINITIVE FROPA COMING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SQUEEZE OUT MOISTURE.
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SHOULD BE COMPLEX AND WILL TRY TO BE
WORKED OUT AND ADDRESSED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE UPDATE. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK (850-500
MB WINDS ~ 10KT) AND IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS CAPTURING THE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER REGARDING SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THAT
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

FOR TODAY...THE AIRMASS IS STILL RECOVERING FROM YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTIVE EPISODE AND COLD POOL PASSAGE. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO
HASTEN THIS PROCESS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE SHOULD
INCREASE TO ~2000 J/KG...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL HELP TO BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THIS SHOULD AID IN SLIGHT LIFT
NEEDED TO REGENERATE TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. THE WEATHER/POP FORECASTS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE...HIGHEST TSTM/RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH
TIME. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS NOT AS GREAT TODAY AND
MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED/SCATTERED THAN
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHEN A LARGE COLD POOL HELPED TO KEEP STORMS
ORGANIZED.

FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A LULL IN THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
IMPROVED UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL INCITE A GREATER RESPONSE IN LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THUS ENHANCING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL APPARENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTH OF THE ARKLAMISS BY THIS
TIME...WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY THE GENERAL RULE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH SPC AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS
IN SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS...BUT THE
MORNING TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL. /EC/

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS WED NIGHT WITH FROPA. DRIER AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-FRI WITH A RETURN OF A WETTER PERIOD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.

BY WED NGT...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUST CLEARED THE ENTIRE REGION
TO THE SOUTH...USHERING DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS. HIGHS THU-FRI
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPS ~10 F BELOW
NORMAL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

MID TO HIGH-LVL CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
MOVING H5 CLOSED SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BIG BEND OF TX.
SMALLER S/WVS WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX SATURDAY
MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS LOW-LVLS SLOWLY
RECOVER WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM WED ONLY
LOOKS TO PUSH GREATER PWAT AIRMASS TO JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. BY SAT AFTN...BOTH EC/GFS DEPICT AN INVERTED SFC PRESSURE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GOM. THIS FEATURE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREATER PWAT RESERVOIR WILL HOLD THE KEY TO HOW MUCH RAIN COULD
OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH THE WEEKEND/ERLY NEXT WEEK.

THE EC HAS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED FARTHER NORTH
/ALLOWING FOR GREATER SE MOISTURE FETCH/ ALONG TX/LA COAST LEADING
TO GREATER PWATS TO INFILTRATE NWD. THE OPS GFS HAS INVERTED
PRESSURE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN REDUCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEPING HIGHER PWATS ACROSS NRN
GOM. IN FACT...OPS GFS ACTUALLY ROTATES EVEN DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
AROUND SFC HIGH FROM THE EAST THAT APPEARS TO LIMIT QPF FIELDS
SAT-SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...EC HAS MUCH GREATER QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN
GREATER MOISTURE PRESENT OVER REGION. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND
OF GFS/GENS MEAN THAT TILTS TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION FOR SAT-TUES.
THAT STATED...SAT-TUES LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH TSTORMS/SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY/NGT RESPECTIVELY WITH DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENT. THE QUESTION OF WHERE THE INVERTED SFC
PRESSURE TROUGH SETS UP WILL BE KEY TO RAINFALL COVERAGE AND OVERALL
AMOUNTS. BY ERLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEPER NRN STREAM TROUGH LOOKS PHASE
IN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FURTHER CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN AS ANOTHER FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THROUGH.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...REDUCED POPS FRIDAY AND EARLY SAT AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MEXMOS SAT-SUN. POPS WERE BUMPED UP MON/TUES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EC SOLUTION. HIGH TEMPS WERE REDUCED A TOUCH
THU-FRI AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ENS MEAN THEREAFTER WITH SLIGHT GFS
BIAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH
TSTMS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
GLH/GWO/GTR CORRIDOR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TSTM
ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD WANE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
REDEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  63  77  51 /  53  53  56   0
MERIDIAN      86  63  79  49 /  53  50  58   0
VICKSBURG     84  62  78  50 /  59  57  49   0
HATTIESBURG   90  66  82  54 /  51  52  56  14
NATCHEZ       86  63  77  53 /  53  47  48   5
GREENVILLE    83  60  78  54 /  47  39  21   0
GREENWOOD     82  59  77  52 /  51  38  24   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50/17/EC/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
239 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES AND ASSOCIATED
MINOR PONDING OF WATER ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

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MSZ037-081950-
ATTALA MS-
218 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF NEWPORT AT 218 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3299 8954 3293 8965 3293 8973 3289 8974
      3289 8981 3296 8989 3300 8988 3304 8983
      3305 8984 3316 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 228DEG 4KT 3298 8976

BK

MSZ025-081955-
LEFLORE MS-
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUNNYSIDE AT 225
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3376 9019 3375 9023 3373 9021 3372 9016
      3355 9016 3357 9045 3375 9045 3376 9027
      3374 9031 3370 9030 3370 9027 3375 9023
      3376 9025 3377 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 270DEG 7KT 3366 9036

BK

MSZ037-081950-
ATTALA MS-
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SALLIS AND
NEWPORT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF NEWPORT AT 234 PM
CDT. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3299 8954 3293 8965 3293 8973 3289 8974
      3289 8981 3296 8989 3300 8988 3304 8983
      3305 8984 3316 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 228DEG 4KT 3298 8976

BK

MSZ025-026-082020-
LEFLORE MS-GRENADA MS-
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...STRONG STORM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONEY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF MONEY AT 250 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN GRENADA AND EAST CENTRAL LEFLORE COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3367 9001 3368 9012 3365 9010 3360 9011
      3360 9029 3370 9031 3370 9027 3374 9023
      3373 9021 3373 9014 3378 9014 3382 9006
      3382 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 262DEG 5KT 3370 9020

BK

MSZ032-037-082025-
ATTALA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF MCCOOL...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCCOOL
AT 255 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND NORTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3319 8921 3311 8921 3311 8931 3308 8932
      3306 8947 3324 8952 3332 8923 3320 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 257DEG 6KT 3317 8939

BK