Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR
MAINLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR MANY AREAS OF THE REGION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AXIS. THIS WOULD COUNT AS A RATHER DECENT
MARCH RAIN EVENT IF IT WERE OVER NOW...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE. THE
REASON FOR ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW IS
A LARGE UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER) THAT
WILL ONLY MOVE ITS CENTER TO THE OK/KS BORDER BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
OUR RELATIVE POSITION IN RELATION TO THIS PLODDING UPPER LOW WILL
KEEP AT LEAST AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION AXIS...WHICH IS A GOOD RECIPE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN
PRODUCTION. AS SEEN YESTERDAY...MAINLY WEST OF OUR
REGION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RACED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
ADVECTION AXIS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
RETREATED BACK TO THE MAIN LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
EVENING. MUCH THE SAME EVOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORM AXIS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD (OR JUST A
LITTLE WEST) OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
"ANCHORING" AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FORMATION WILL BE GRADUALLY EDGING
EAST THROUGH TOMORROW...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE REGION FURTHER AND FURTHER EAST AS WE GO THROUGH
TOMORROW.

AS THIS EVOLUTION IN RAINFALL DISPERSION TAKES PLACE ANTICIPATE
OVERALL LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS (AND THUS WIND SHEAR) TO BE LESSENING
WITH TIME AND THEREFORE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION
WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE WANE. THE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TORNADO WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI EXPIRES AT 6 PM AND
AT THIS POINT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED AS DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY FACTORS IN WITH THE LESSENING SHEAR VALUES. AN EXCEPTION
COULD PROVE TO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE GREATER POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY LINGERING INTO TONIGHT...AND THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOMORROW...COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEFLY STRONG STORMS. BUT EVEN HERE
WE THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MORE TRULY SEVERE STORMS IS PRETTY
LOW BY THIS EVENING.

BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL WILL BE A CONCERN...AS
MENTIONED...AND THE PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS REORIENTED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA ARE POSSIBLE AND THE PROSPECTS OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS GETTING LOTS OF
RAIN REALLY QUICKLY. ERGO...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SOMEWHAT HANGUP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ONLY CLEARING SE MS
LATER FRIDAY. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
EVERYWHERE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER TONIGHT...BUT THIS
DECREASE WILL BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL AND THOSE AROUND HBG MAY GET TIRED
OF INTERMITTENT RAIN DROPS AFTER FRIDAY IS THROUGH.

EXPECTING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE PUSHED A LITTLE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND NOT REALLY BELOW NORMAL ANYWHERE. QUICK MODERATION BACK
TO SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.  NWP
MODEL CONSENSUS REALLY SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT START
INCREASING AGAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MS
COUNTIES...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST. IN MS
ONE AND OFF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN...BUT
WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING IFR FLIGHT CAT REDUCTIONS REALLY NOT
ANTICIPATED. FLIGHT CATS MAY REMAIN MORE SUB-MVFR THAN VFR TOMORROW
EAST OF I-55...BUT FURTHER WEST LARGELY VFR WILL START TO PREVAIL.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND
GENERALLY NOT AS GUSTY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  77  57  81 / 100  63  45  12
MERIDIAN      60  74  58  82 /  95  95  63  28
VICKSBURG     49  78  52  79 /  78  40  19   5
HATTIESBURG   60  76  62  84 / 100  87  47  35
NATCHEZ       47  76  52  79 /  71  38  21   4
GREENVILLE    51  73  54  75 /  81  38  24   8
GREENWOOD     52  76  56  78 / 100  58  31  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ030>033-038-
     039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-036-
     037-042-043-047>049-053-054-059>062.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
257 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

MSZ026>029-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-059>063-222000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-HOLMES-ATTALA-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
257 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REDUCE LATER THIS EVENING AS INCREASING
STABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE I-55
CORRIDOR ALLOWING FOR 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TAPPER OFF AND PUSH EAST. SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS GIVEN RUNOFF AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY.

MSZ030>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-222000-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
257 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REDUCE LATER THIS EVENING AS INCREASING
STABILIZATION OCCURS.

A LONG DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING THIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-222000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
257 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF AND WATER LEVELS IN LOCAL CREEKS TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...NO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

MSZ038-045-046-051-052-057-212120-
WINSTON MS-NEWTON MS-NESHOBA MS-LAUDERDALE MS-KEMPER MS-JASPER MS-
322 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA TO 16 MILES
SOUTH OF DUFFEE AT 322 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JASPER...WESTERN KEMPER...NORTHWESTERN
LAUDERDALE...EASTERN NESHOBA...EASTERN NEWTON AND WINSTON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3220 8896 3279 8922 3329 8908 3328 8889
      3312 8881 3293 8881 3293 8872 3279 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 206DEG 41KT 3274 8909 3228 8895

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
03/21/2012                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND A COUPLE OF POWERLINES DOWN...REPORTED
            BY CITY OF DERMOTT EM

&&

DL

MSZ029>033-212225-
WEBSTER MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
424 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM REFORM TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORD AT
424 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW...CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES...
OKTIBBEHA AND EASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8862 3329 8907 3343 8927 3373 8921
      3375 8919 3374 8904 3376 8903 3376 8894
      3382 8893 3382 8873 3380 8871 3368 8871
      3368 8853
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 190DEG 40KT 3346 8917 3317 8874

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
431 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N PETAL               31.42N 89.25W
03/21/2012                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WERE SNAPPED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF EASTABUCHIE
            RD AND LONGLEAF DR IN NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
443 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW MILL CREEK        31.72N 89.03W
03/21/2012  E50.00 MPH       JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ALONG SWAMP ROAD EAST OF LAUREL

&&

DL

MSZ064>066-073-074-212230-
LAMAR MS-JONES MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-FORREST MS-COVINGTON MS-
445 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF SUMRALL AT 446 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 45
MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN FORREST...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON DAVIS...WESTERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3136 8964 3178 8964 3180 8935 3180 8931
      3134 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 194DEG 40KT 3144 8947

MME