Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

September 5, 2012Stark County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at Sep 5, 2012, 10:03 AM CDT for Stark County, Illinois. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 5, 2012, 10:03 AM CDT (15:03 UTC)
Expired: Sep 5, 2012, 11:00 AM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL

County Stark County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 375 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -258 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 298 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 5, 6:48 AM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 6:48 AM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. PER SPC DAY1 DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
FROM ACROSS CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD IL AT 00Z/THU SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. THE PRISTINE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO
SUPPORT HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ESPECIALLY WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...CELLS SHOULD
CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE AND
MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE REGION.

ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL BE THE 6TH
CONSECTIVE HUMID DAY SINCE LAST FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ISAACS
TROPICAL MOISTURE. WARMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S TODAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 70S TO GIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100F...TO
AS HIGH AS 100-104F IN SW COUNTIES SO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105F. INCREASED POPS NW AREAS THIS MORNING TO HANDLE
MCS OVER EASTERN IA AND INCREASE POPS OVER REST OF CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND SE IL BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO IL BY SUNSET THU BRINGING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THU ALONG WITH LESS HUMID AIR. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO ON THU AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO
NEAR 90F FAR SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE.

YET ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL LATER
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS 5% RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS SOUTHERN HALF FOR FRI/FRI EVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE
QUARTER INCHES WITH LOCAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND MOST MODELS NO LONGER CUTOFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SO CONTINUED TREND OF SHIFTING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND AND LESS CLOUD COVER. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES SAT AND HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN IL. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF CENTRAL/SE IL BY SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...MORE CLOUDS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES GRADUALLY NOSES INTO IL BY NEXT TUE/WED
BRINGING QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODIFYING FROM WEEKEND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY TUE/WED.

KH

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IL RIVER AT PIA AIRPORT
WILL SPREAD SE TO BMI AIRPORT AROUND 12Z AND SHOULD FALL APART AS IT
REACHES I-72 BY MID MORNING. NNE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT PIA AND BMI NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THESE WINDS ENHANCED BY A MESO-HIGH 1015 MB BY CLINTON
IA NEAR THE IA/IL MS RIVER BORDER WITH WEAKENING MCS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THIS OUTFLOW HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT
THE I-72 TAF SITES WHERE A WIND SHIFT MAY BE NEEDED THERE AS WELL
BY MID MORNING...BUT WITH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL IL AND CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING AND LAST LONGEST A DEC
AND CMI AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES SE THROUGH
CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD BE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL THOUGH TOO
EARLY TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THIS. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KTS TODAY TURNING NW BY
OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SETTLES INTO THE MS VALLEY THU MORNING.

KH

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 5, 5:42 AM CDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
542 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-061100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
542 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY UNTIL SUNSET.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SOUTH OF
I-72 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM
TODAY.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061-061100-
CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
542 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAINLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS DURING THAT TIME. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SOUTH OF I-72 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM TODAY.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-061100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
542 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
DURING THAT TIME. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM TODAY.

KH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 5, 5:56 AM CDT, 4 hours 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
556 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILZ068-073-051130-
CRAWFORD-LAWRENCE-
556 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 553 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF VINCENNES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE
AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM.

LAT...LON 3870 8752 3868 8762 3899 8776 3902 8756
      3899 8756 3897 8752 3892 8751 3886 8754
      3885 8752 3882 8752 3879 8749 3874 8749
TIME...MOT...LOC 1055Z 306DEG 15KT 3874 8751

SMITH

Special weather statement, Sep 5, 7:26 AM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
726 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILZ041>043-048-050>053-051330-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
726 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MASON...LOGAN...MENARD...
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN...NORTHERN CHRISTIAN...NORTHERN SANGAMON...
WESTERN DE WITT AND WESTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIDDLETOWN...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF MASON
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILLIAMSVILLE...
  ELKHART...
  CORNLAND...
  LINCOLN...
  MOUNT PULASKI...
  CHESTNUT...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...SWEETWATER...FANCY PRAIRIE AND
BROADWELL.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4019 8912 3982 8924 3984 9001 4023 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 283DEG 39KT 4007 8960

SMITH

Special weather statement, Sep 5, 7:31 AM CDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
731 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILZ049>051-051330-
MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCOTT-
731 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT...SOUTHERN MORGAN AND
WESTERN SANGAMON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 728 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
PLEASANT PLAINS TO ALSEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOAMI...
  FRANKLIN...
  CHATHAM...
  WAVERLY...
  DIVERNON...
  AUBURN...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...LAKE JACKSONVILLE...GLASGOW...
SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...LYNNVILLE...FARMINGDALE AND BERLIN.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3969 9064 3986 8969 3953 8960 3951 9001
      3952 9056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 338DEG 40KT 3983 8980 3955 9045

SMITH

Local storm report, Sep 5, 7:50 AM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
750 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TSTM WND GST     PRENTICE                39.85N 90.05W
09/05/2012  E50.00 MPH       MORGAN             IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT

&&

TIMTE

Local storm report, Sep 5, 10:01 AM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1001 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSONVILLE            39.73N 90.23W
09/05/2012                   MORGAN             IL   MESONET

            2 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN. SWOP REPORT.

&&

TIMTE

Special weather statement, Sep 5, 10:03 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1003 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILZ027>029-051600-
KNOX-PEORIA-STARK-
1003 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KNOX...NORTHERN PEORIA
AND STARK COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ONEIDA...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF CAMBRIDGE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALTONA...
  VICTORIA...
  LA FAYETTE...
  WEST JERSEY...
  ELMORE...
  TOULON...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...SNAKE DEN HOLLOW AND DUNCAN.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4115 8963 4098 8964 4097 8962 4088 8961
      4106 9038 4116 9030 4115 8988 4124 8986
      4124 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 286DEG 27KT 4112 9022

BARKER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 5, 4:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox	60 min
Sep 5, 5:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Knox	58 min
Sep 5, 5:36 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Fulton, Schuyler	54 min
Sep 5, 5:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Marshall, Mason, Peoria, Stark, Tazewell, Woodford	66 min
Sep 5, 5:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Lawrence	34 min
Sep 5, 6:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Cass, Mason, Morgan, Schuyler, Scott	55 min
Sep 5, 7:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Logan, Menard	64 min
Sep 5, 7:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Morgan, Sangamon, Scott	59 min
Sep 5, 7:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Morgan, Sangamon, Scott	34 min
Sep 5, 8:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Christian, Shelby	44 min
Sep 5, 9:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clay, Effingham	38 min
Sep 5, 10:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clay, Effingham, Jasper, Richland	59 min
Sep 5, 11:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Lawrence, Richland	38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.