Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2012
Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL
NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at Sep 5, 2012, 5:32 AM CDT for Knox County, Illinois. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 5, 2012, 5:32 AM CDT (10:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 5, 2012, 6:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- NWS Lincoln, IL
County Knox County, IL
The radar
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1890 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1662 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 5, 3:30 AM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 3:30 AM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 330 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. PER SPC DAY1 DISCUSSION... MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM ACROSS CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND SPRINGFIELD IL AT 00Z/THU SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE PRISTINE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...CELLS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM RESULTING IN AN INCREASED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE REGION. ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL BE THE 6TH CONSECTIVE HUMID DAY SINCE LAST FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ISAACS TROPICAL MOISTURE. WARMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO GIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100F...TO AS HIGH AS 100-104F IN SW COUNTIES SO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. INCREASED POPS NW AREAS THIS MORNING TO HANDLE MCS OVER EASTERN IA AND INCREASE POPS OVER REST OF CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND SE IL BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO IL BY SUNSET THU BRINGING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THU ALONG WITH LESS HUMID AIR. BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ON THU AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO NEAR 90F FAR SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE. YET ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS 5% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTHERN HALF FOR FRI/FRI EVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTER INCHES WITH LOCAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND MOST MODELS NO LONGER CUTOFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SO CONTINUED TREND OF SHIFTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND AND LESS CLOUD COVER. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SAT AND HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN IL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF CENTRAL/SE IL BY SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MORE CLOUDS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES GRADUALLY NOSES INTO IL BY NEXT TUE/WED BRINGING QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODIFYING FROM WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY TUE/WED. KH && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THE LINE OF STORMS IS PROGRESSING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND APPEARS TO BE FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT NEARS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE DAMAGING WINDS WERE ADVANCING WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION FRONT...SO WE WERE ANTICIPATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGE REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE LINE WEAKENED. IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SUB-SEVERE WINDS FROM ANY REMAINING STORMS THAT ENTER INTO OUR AREA FROM STARK COUNTY DOWN THROUGH VERMILION COUNTY. WE PLAN TO ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AT PIA/BMI/CMI IN RESPONSE TO THE LINE OF CURRENT STORMS. THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION...SO PIA MAY GET MISSED BY THIS COMPLEX. BMI/CMI HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP. WE ADDED JUST VCSH SINCE THUNDER SHOULD BECOME LESS PROMINENT WITH THE WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. WE WENT WITH A VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH PIA BY 20-22Z AND PROGRESSING TO CMI BY 02Z-03Z. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...WITH LIGHT RAINS LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL STORMS. WE DECIDED TO ADD AN MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT CMI LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ADDITION OF PRECIP CHANCES /VCSH/. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG GETTING MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH 10-15KT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS REMAINING S TO SOUTHEAST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SOLUTION...SINCE SOME VEERING USUALLY OCCURS IN THESE SCENARIOS. SHIMON && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 4, 3:17 PM CDT, 14 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-051100- CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON- MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK- TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK. MOST OF THEM WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ILZ044>046-054>057-061-051100- CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION- 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK. MOST OF THEM WILL BE ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-051100- CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND- 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK. MOST OF THEM WILL BE ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT. GEELHART
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 5, 5:32 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 532 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012 ILZ027>029-036-051130- FULTON-KNOX-PEORIA-STARK- 532 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FULTON...SOUTHERN KNOX...SOUTHWESTERN STARK AND WESTERN PEORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT... AT 527 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST JERSEY TO AVON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... YATES CITY... FAIRVIEW... ELMWOOD... FARMINGTON... CANTON... OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...ST. AUGUSTINE...DELONG... ELLISVILLE...MIDDLE GROVE...MARIETTA AND FIATT. PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. LAT...LON 4114 8992 4052 8990 4048 9045 4077 9045 TIME...MOT...LOC 1033Z 312DEG 35KT 4098 8978 4068 9040 SMITH
The office that day
Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 4:30 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Fulton, Knox | 60 min |
| Sep 5, 5:36 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Fulton, Schuyler | 54 min |
| Sep 5, 5:54 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Marshall, Mason, Peoria, Stark, Tazewell, Woodford | 66 min |
| Sep 5, 5:56 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Lawrence | 34 min |
| Sep 5, 6:38 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Cass, Mason, Morgan, Schuyler, Scott | 55 min |
| Sep 5, 7:26 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Logan, Menard | 64 min |
| Sep 5, 7:31 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon, Scott | 59 min |
| Sep 5, 7:41 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon, Scott | 34 min |
| Sep 5, 8:46 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Christian, Shelby | 44 min |
| Sep 5, 9:52 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Clay, Effingham | 38 min |
| Sep 5, 10:03 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Stark | 57 min |
| Sep 5, 10:31 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Clay, Effingham, Jasper, Richland | 59 min |
| Sep 5, 11:07 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Lawrence, Richland | 38 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.