Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
521 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. A TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE HEAT HEADLINES FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE FEW SPOTS SUCH AS LEWIS AND SCIOTO COUNTIES THAT
HAVE NOT GOTTEN THE RAIN YET...READINGS WILL NOT REACH AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH INCOMING RAIN EXPECTED.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS
INITIAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT IN GOOD FAITH REMOVE
THE WATCH BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION. ATMOSPHERE HAS A CHANCE
TO RECHARGE AND WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG...LARGE HAIL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS THAT EXHIBIT
STRONG VERTICAL EXTENT. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS IN ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO TO SEE IF IT IS REASONABLE TO TONE DOWN THE SEVERE WORDING FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DID NOT MAKE SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 3 PERIODS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

LOWERED POPS TONIGHT BY A BUNCH IN THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPECT
THINGS TO RAMP UP QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW INTERACTS WITH A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF
DAYTIME HEATING. FEEL THAT THE 3-6Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER CROSSES BEFORE I AM
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO SOUND THE ALL CLEAR...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWEST.

DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS
THE BOARD AS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AT LEAST AGREE
ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH REGION SITUATED ON EASTERN SIDE
OF PLAINS/ROCKIES RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO
OUR EAST...WITH A SFC LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC REFLECTION DEVELOPING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH WEAK
INSTBY...THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE 20 POPS OVER OUR EASTERN TIER OR
TWO OF COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE CWA. SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH FAIRLY LOW
HUMIDITY.

THE GFS TAKES A MORE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED TURN BEGINNING
MONDAY...WITH PROJECTIONS OF A DEEPENING EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO TAKE AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH WITH THE FORECAST. THERE IS CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT
TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES...AS A SFC BOUNDARY/UPPER
WAVE SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA. SOME ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BEGINNING MONDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE HEAT DOME
REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE
IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT. OTHERWISE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CLUSTERS/LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE E/SE ACRS THE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. MODE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE NOT TRIED TO PINPOINT WIND
STRENGTH AT THE TAFS...KNOWING THAT AMENDMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
EMPLOYED IF AND WHEN IT BECOMES NECESSARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL SHIFT E/SE OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING MAINLY A DRY
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW AND DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-060-062-
070-071-271515-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-HARDIN-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-PREBLE-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
ALSO...ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WHICH MAY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE...AND SUBSEQUENT POWER
OUTAGES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ055-056-061-063>065-072>074-077>082-088-
271515-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
MONTGOMERY-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
ALSO...ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WHICH MAY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE...AND SUBSEQUENT POWER
OUTAGES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
529 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             BATAVIA                 39.08N 84.18W
07/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED TO 40 MPH.

&&

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
543 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

OHZ074-262215-
HOCKING OH-
543 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HOCKING COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF OREVILLE TO LAKE LOGAN STATE PARK
TO HOCKING HILLS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...HOCKING HILLS STATE
PARK...LOGAN AND CARBON HILL.

ALSO...OREVILLE...UNION FURNACE...HAYDENVILLE...STARR AND MURRAY CITY
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3947 8216 3947 8227 3938 8229 3939 8250
      3937 8252 3937 8260 3944 8257 3945 8259
      3966 8238 3960 8237 3960 8226 3956 8225
      3956 8215

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
549 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

OHZ062-071-072-262230-
CLINTON OH-GREENE OH-WARREN OH-
549 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN...SOUTHERN
GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING
VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...XENIA AND JAMESTOWN.

ALSO...MIDDLETON CORNER...LUMBERTON...PAINTERSVILLE...NEW JASPER...
PORT WILLIAM...BOWERSVILLE...BELL CENTER AND ROSEMOOR ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3973 8365 3955 8367 3951 8409 3969 8411

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E DUVALL              39.77N 82.88W
07/26/2012                   PICKAWAY           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED

&&

MYRONP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
557 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BALTIMORE               39.85N 82.61W
07/26/2012                   FAIRFIELD          OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED

&&

MYRONP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

OHZ071-072-262245-
CLINTON OH-WARREN OH-
601 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
CLINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 558 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGMAN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WILMINGTON AND SABINA.

ALSO...BURTONVILLE...PORT WILLIAM...NEW ANTIOCH...MELVIN...
BLOOMINGTON AND REESVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3953 8409 3956 8380 3954 8359 3938 8359
      3939 8407