Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
521 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. A TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE HEAT HEADLINES FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE FEW SPOTS SUCH AS LEWIS AND SCIOTO COUNTIES THAT
HAVE NOT GOTTEN THE RAIN YET...READINGS WILL NOT REACH AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH INCOMING RAIN EXPECTED.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS
INITIAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT IN GOOD FAITH REMOVE
THE WATCH BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION. ATMOSPHERE HAS A CHANCE
TO RECHARGE AND WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG...LARGE HAIL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS THAT EXHIBIT
STRONG VERTICAL EXTENT. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS IN ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO TO SEE IF IT IS REASONABLE TO TONE DOWN THE SEVERE WORDING FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DID NOT MAKE SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 3 PERIODS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

LOWERED POPS TONIGHT BY A BUNCH IN THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPECT
THINGS TO RAMP UP QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW INTERACTS WITH A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF
DAYTIME HEATING. FEEL THAT THE 3-6Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER CROSSES BEFORE I AM
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO SOUND THE ALL CLEAR...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWEST.

DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS
THE BOARD AS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AT LEAST AGREE
ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH REGION SITUATED ON EASTERN SIDE
OF PLAINS/ROCKIES RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO
OUR EAST...WITH A SFC LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC REFLECTION DEVELOPING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH WEAK
INSTBY...THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE 20 POPS OVER OUR EASTERN TIER OR
TWO OF COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE CWA. SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH FAIRLY LOW
HUMIDITY.

THE GFS TAKES A MORE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED TURN BEGINNING
MONDAY...WITH PROJECTIONS OF A DEEPENING EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO TAKE AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH WITH THE FORECAST. THERE IS CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT
TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES...AS A SFC BOUNDARY/UPPER
WAVE SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA. SOME ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS
TIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BEGINNING MONDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE HEAT DOME
REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE
IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT. OTHERWISE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CLUSTERS/LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE E/SE ACRS THE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. MODE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE NOT TRIED TO PINPOINT WIND
STRENGTH AT THE TAFS...KNOWING THAT AMENDMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
EMPLOYED IF AND WHEN IT BECOMES NECESSARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL SHIFT E/SE OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING MAINLY A DRY
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW AND DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088-272230-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
628 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...EVEN BEHIND THE ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE SUN SETS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-070-272230-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-
628 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONDONDERRY             39.27N 82.79W
07/26/2012                   ROSS               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

JDR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

KYZ091>093-OHZ063-070>073-077>080-262330-
KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-CLINTON OH-
FAYETTE OH-HAMILTON OH-ROSS OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-HIGHLAND OH-
641 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HIGHLAND...NORTHERN CLERMONT
...SOUTHERN WARREN...EXTREME WESTERN ROSS...HAMILTON...SOUTHERN
FAYETTE...CLINTON...SOUTHERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN BROWN...
CAMPBELL...BOONE AND NORTHERN KENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...VILLA HILLS...NORTH
COLLEGE HILL...MOUNT HEALTHY...FOREST PARK...CRESCENT SPRINGS...
ERLANGER...CRESTVIEW HILLS...LAKESIDE PARK...LUDLOW...FINNEYTOWN...
FORT MITCHELL AND SPRINGDALE.

ALSO...CRESCENT PARK...GREENHILLS...MAUSTOWN...ST. BERNARD...ELMWOOD
PLACE...KENTON VALE...WOODLAWN AND GLENDALE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3937 8482 3954 8331 3905 8339 3900 8481

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

OHZ063-064-073-262315-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY OH-ROSS OH-
641 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ROSS...SOUTHERN
PICKAWAY AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 638 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOOD
HOPE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NEW HOLLAND AND
KINGSTON.

ALSO...FRANKFORT...CLARKSBURG...ANDERSONVILLE...PICKAWAY COUNTY
AIRPORT...HALLSVILLE AND WHISLER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3934 8282 3938 8340 3956 8340 3957 8284
      3956 8281

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             3 SSW SPRINGFIELD       39.89N 83.81W
07/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              OH   PUBLIC

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT     39.10N 84.42W
07/26/2012  M48.00 MPH       HAMILTON           OH   ASOS

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST UNION              38.79N 83.54W
07/26/2012                   ADAMS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM MANCHESTER TO WEST UNION.

&&

JDR