Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE WORKS NORTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUNSET. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SOME FOG
FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
DENSE ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS AND THEREFORE LEFT FOG
OUT CURRENTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL WORK UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR MONDAY
DURING THE DAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...AND SE INDIANA. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRESENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO INCREASE TUESDAY WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES BOTH PERIODS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL USHER
IN LESS HUMID AIR WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME WHETHER THERE WILL MUCH OF A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NEAR KDAY AND KILN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CU WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY NOW THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THIS FEATURE
FROM THE FORECAST. IN TURN HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO ALLOW FOR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS AREAS UPSTREAM ACROSS IL/IN LAST NIGHT EXPERIENCED
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE DENSE
FOG/MIST APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. AFTER
SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH SCATTERED CU
LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
531 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-160945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
531 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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