Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WARM... UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON
WEDNESDAY... LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

 &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THRU OHIO
TODAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST INTO NW OHIO BY
00Z TUE. EXPECT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
ACRS THE NORTH EARLY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND THEN INCREASES
TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INSTBY/SHEAR TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL STORMS. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
BETTER CHANCE FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NWD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION
WITH PW/S INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES ABOUT 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. THEREFORE...EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. THESE RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH A WET GROUND FROM RECENT
RAIN MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOOD THREATS IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

REGARDING POPS...REMNANTS OF WEAKENING MCS TO AFFECT THE NORTH
EARLY. WILL ALLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION AND THEN RAMP POPS UP TO
CATEGORICAL BY LATE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER/AIRMASS CHANGE AND PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH A BLENDED SOLN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF TO DIG SE THRU THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BACKING MORE SW OVER
ILNS FA LATE TONIGHT/TUE. SFC LOW TO TRACK NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SRN CANADA WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN
SECTION OF ILN/S FA BY 12Z TUE. ONGOING CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER AHD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FA
OVERNIGHT IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE POST FRONTAL 925 MB CONVERGENCE.
WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST THRU EARLY TUE AND THEN
SLOWLY DROP TO LKLY BY LATE MORNING AND THEN ENDING TUE EVENING.
KEPT TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLN.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE DIGGING SE INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. THIS
INDUCES AN E-W SFC TROF WHICH DROPS S INTO ILN/S FA WED AFTN.
MARGINAL INSTBY ALSO DEVELOPS SO CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT KEPT
MENTION LIMITED TO CHANCE CAT OF SHOWERS. EXPECT BEST POPS ACRS
THE NORTH WHERE INSTBY AND FORCING OVERLAPS. HAVE TRENDED WED/S
HIGHS A LTL COOLER THAN GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY
THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THEN READINGS WILL
REBOUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KLUK/KCMH DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 21Z. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. THESE WILL AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR A MORE STEADY RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE TAFS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WITH 1 TO 2 KFT
STRATUS EXPECTED AREA WIDE LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS KDAY/KLCK/KCMH WILL
DROP TO IFR BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-082045-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
439 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. INTENSE RAINFALL FROM THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

OHZ026-072145-
HARDIN OH-
448 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HUNTERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...KENTON...DUNKIRK AND
FOREST.

ALSO...DOLA...BLANCHARD...GRANT...PFEIFFER AND PATTERSON ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4082 8349 4071 8349 4071 8344 4068 8341
      4062 8342 4061 8387 4071 8389 4072 8388
      4078 8389 4083 8370 4082 8350

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