Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA LIMITED INSTABILITY INITIALLY...BUT WE HAVE WARMED UP
ENOUGH NOW TO PUSH ML CAPES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH IT
THEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS POINT IS
NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. AT ANY
RATE...WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO PROGRESS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BETTER COVERAGE
PUSHES SOUTH.

OTHER CONCERN IS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA ATTM. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT NOSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FA.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT SUPPOSE THE NORTHERN EDGE
COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WILL BE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE BETTER SHEAR VALUES
PRESENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE...SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. THIS
LIGHT SHEAR/WIND REGIME WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PWS WILL BE IN THE 1.2 TO
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCH RANGE. WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT IS
NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT THOUGH AS LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FIELDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH BETTER SIGNALS
GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT
HEAVY PCPN THIS MORNING MAINLY REMAINED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
FA...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE
FRONT LINGERING IN THE VICINITY...WILL HANG ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST IS IN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE BETTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HPC FORECASTS ARE GIVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
IS IN OPPOSITION TO WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THEIR OWN MANUAL
PROGS. THE PROGS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH BISECTS OHIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. I
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING COLD POOL SHOWERS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY OR EVEN THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT STUFF. HOWEVER THEIR
GUIDANCE WAS 30 AND 40 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH IS
ENTIRELY TOO HIGH. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR MID WEEK ONWARD
AND KEEP A COOL START WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP GIVEN MORE SUN
THAN NOT EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

UNTIL THE FROPA EARLY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY GIVE WAY TO THE LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF MONDAYS SYSTEM AND THEN
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE COLDER AIR FOUND BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN HEAVIER STORMS. HAVE HELD OFF FORECASTING ANY TEMPOS FOR
NOW UNTIL CONVECTION TIMING BECOMES MORE APPARENT. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS DUE TO CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
THE 23Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT...FOG/MIST MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER BEHIND THE CONVECTION AND WILL
REMAIN MVFR ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR...HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO DO SO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-052015-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
415 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080-082-052015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
415 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

KYZ097-099-OHZ078-079-042245-
MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLERMONT...SOUTHERN
BROWN...NORTHERN BRACKEN AND NORTHERN MASON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BRADFORD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BROOKSVILLE...
AUGUSTA...WASHINGTON...MAYSVILLE...RIPLEY AND ABERDEEN.

ALSO...ROCK SPRINGS...WOOLCUTT...UTOPIA...PARINA...CHATHAM...
HIGGINSPORT...REDOAK AND SOMO ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3871 8422 3885 8421 3881 8372 3857 8372

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OHZ052-053-042245-
CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR URBANA...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...MECHANICSBURG.

ALSO...POWHATTAN...MUTUAL...CATAWBA STATION AND CATAWBA ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4015 8350 3994 8354 4006 8387 4016 8384

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OHZ053-054-062-063-042300-
CLARK OH-FAYETTE OH-GREENE OH-MADISON OH-
629 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MADISON...EASTERN
GREENE...NORTHERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHADY
GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
JEFFERSONVILLE...BLOOMINGBURG...LONDON AND MOUNT STERLING.

ALSO...MILLEDGEVILLE...SOUTH SOLON...LISBON...PLATTSBURG...
BOOKWALTER...MIDWAY...MADISON MILLS AND MADISON LAKE ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3960 8327 3956 8378 3991 8399 3993 8329
      3971 8325

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     FLOOD            5 W URBANA              40.11N 83.84W
05/04/2012                   CHAMPAIGN          OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHOTO SUBMITTED TO WDTN OF FARM FIELD FLOODING ON SR-560

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OHZ042-051-042300-
DARKE OH-MIAMI OH-
637 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MIAMI AND EASTERN
DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNION
CORNERS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BRADFORD...PLEASANT
HILL AND COVINGTON.

ALSO...UNION CORNERS...HORATIO...CIRCLE HILL...CLAYTON AND LUDLOW
FALLS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4019 8427 3998 8427 4003 8457 4015 8457

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