Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Wilmington, OH

960 
WWUS51 KILN 241643
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYC135-OHC001-015-145-241700-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120724T1700Z/
LEWIS KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-SCIOTO OH-
1243 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN SCIOTO...SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...SOUTHERN ADAMS AND LEWIS
COUNTIES...

AT 1241 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BUENA VISTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BOSTON...WHEELERSBURG...CAMP DIX...HEAD OF GRASSY AND FRANKLIN
FURNACE.

IN ADDITION...SAINT PAUL...FIREBRICK...PETERSVILLE...SCIOTOVILLE...
KINNICONICK...GARRISON...STRICKLETT AND TANNERY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 8341 3837 8345 3841 8353 3858 8363
      3861 8362 3863 8366 3889 8381 3888 8306
      3868 8276 3860 8274 3859 8275 3857 8282
      3859 8285 3875 8288 3872 8302 3859 8307
      3843 8323 3834 8322 3832 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 326DEG 55KT 3865 8319

$$


BINAU

668 
WWUS51 KILN 241657
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYC135-OHC001-015-145-241706-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120724T1700Z/
LEWIS KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-SCIOTO OH-
1257 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SCIOTO...EASTERN 
BROWN...SOUTHERN ADAMS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS COUNTIES HAS 
EXPIRED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...HOWEVER...FOR EXTREME WESTERN LEWIS 
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3839 8341 3837 8345 3841 8353 3858 8363
      3861 8362 3863 8366 3889 8381 3888 8306
      3868 8276 3860 8274 3859 8275 3857 8282
      3859 8285 3875 8288 3872 8302 3859 8307
      3843 8323 3834 8322 3832 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 346DEG 39KT 3864 8361

$$


BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...HELPING TO
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CHANGES THIS MORNING INVOLVE RAISING POPS AND THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH TODAY. MAIN DILEMMA WILL BE CURRENT MCS CLUSTER PUSHING
SE INTO THE NW CWFA PER RADAR MOSAIC. CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE SOME
SVR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES SE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. SPC HAS DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLUSTER UNTIL 19Z
WITH HIGH PWATS NEAR AND IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO OCCUR...BUT WITH MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND STORM
MOTIONS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH...FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED.

PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE SE CWFA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z AND THEN FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR SW FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE VARY TRICKY GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTN. HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT HIGHS AS IS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH AS THE DAY GOES
ON. SO...DESPITE HEAT INDICES REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON HEAT HEADLINES THERE
GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
EVENING...FINALLY STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE FORECAST A LULL
IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO START OFF TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD FIRE OFF AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS A WARM POOL
OF 25C AT 850 HPA NOSING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
WE CAN CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD. EITHER WAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES
FOR THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEARS WELL CAPPED AND HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT FOR
THAT PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY VARYING TIMING FOR THIS CONVECTION. SO HAVE OPTED WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER NAM...AND SLOWER ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE S/W DOESNT SWING THRU UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THIS SHOULD STALL THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EWD AND SHOULD KICKOFF ADDITION CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE E ON FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
WRMFNT MIGHT BE PUSHED OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WITH BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH
THE REGION WARM SECTORED. USED A BLEND OF ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
PUTS HIGHS ON THU IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING...NOW PUSHING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. THE LATEST
HI-RES MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON EXACTLY HOW TO HANDLE
THIS...RANGING FROM QUICKLY WEAKENING PCPN BY MID MORNING...TO
HANGING ON TO PCPN WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. JUST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THINK PCPN SHOULD HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAFS SO WILL PLAY THEM ACCORDINGLY. AFTER THAT...WILL
BANK ON A BIT OF A LATE MORNING LULL IN THE PCPN AND CUT THINGS
OFF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH THAT. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT IS SAGGING DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW REMNANTS OF
ONGOING PCPN WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT. IF CURRENT CLOUDS AND
PCPN ARE ABLE DISSIPATE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO GET SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST AND WILL COVER THAT THREAT WITH JUST A VCTS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AS WE START TO GET SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...THINK WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

INZ050-KYZ100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-071>074-080>082-
088-250915-
WAYNE-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
506 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070-077>079-250915-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-BUTLER-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
506 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THESE STORMS
DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. THIS WOULD HELP PRODUCE HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 90S. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1151 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     TSTM WND GST     KILN WILMINGTON APT     39.43N 83.79W
07/24/2012  M49 MPH          CLINTON            OH   ASOS

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1152 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     HAIL             EATON                   39.75N 84.63W
07/24/2012  E0.75 INCH       PREBLE             OH   PUBLIC

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1158 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W MASON               39.37N 84.37W
07/24/2012                   BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAFFIC LIGHT SIGNALS BLOWN OFF THEIR WIRES NEAR I-75 AND
            LIBERTY WAY EXCHANGE.

&&

SFH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1206 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFIELD               39.33N 84.54W
07/24/2012                   BUTLER             OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1213 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT     39.10N 84.42W
07/24/2012  M52.00 MPH       HAMILTON           OH   ASOS

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1221 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S MILFORD             39.12N 84.27W
07/24/2012  M1.47 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 N OF I-275/SR-32 INTERCHANGE. ALSO MEASURED 41 MPH GUST
            AT 1215 PM.

&&

SNYDER