Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Wilmington, OH

107 
WWUS51 KILN 241550
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

OHC015-025-027-071-165-241600-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-120724T1600Z/
BROWN OH-CLINTON OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-HIGHLAND OH-
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FOR
NORTHERN HIGHLAND...NORTHEASTERN CLERMONT...SOUTHERN WARREN...CLINTON
AND NORTHERN BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 1146 AM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MELVIN TO WILMINGTON TO SOUTH
LEBANON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW VIENNA...BLANCHESTER...LYNCHBURG...ST. MARTIN...HILLSBORO AND
FAYETTEVILLE.

IN ADDITION...MARTINSVILLE...BUTLERVILLE...MIDLAND...HIGHLAND...
PLEASANT PLAIN...WESTBORO...WOODVILLE AND SAMANTHA ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 8426 3948 8388 3953 8375 3923 8345
      3912 8370 3909 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 326DEG 46KT 3939 8364 3935 8383
          3933 8417

$$


BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...HELPING TO
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CHANGES THIS MORNING INVOLVE RAISING POPS AND THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH TODAY. MAIN DILEMMA WILL BE CURRENT MCS CLUSTER PUSHING
SE INTO THE NW CWFA PER RADAR MOSAIC. CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE SOME
SVR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES SE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. SPC HAS DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLUSTER UNTIL 19Z
WITH HIGH PWATS NEAR AND IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO OCCUR...BUT WITH MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND STORM
MOTIONS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH...FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED.

PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE SE CWFA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z AND THEN FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR SW FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE VARY TRICKY GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTN. HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT HIGHS AS IS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH AS THE DAY GOES
ON. SO...DESPITE HEAT INDICES REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON HEAT HEADLINES THERE
GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
EVENING...FINALLY STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE FORECAST A LULL
IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO START OFF TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD FIRE OFF AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS A WARM POOL
OF 25C AT 850 HPA NOSING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
WE CAN CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD. EITHER WAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES
FOR THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEARS WELL CAPPED AND HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT FOR
THAT PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY VARYING TIMING FOR THIS CONVECTION. SO HAVE OPTED WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER NAM...AND SLOWER ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE S/W DOESNT SWING THRU UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THIS SHOULD STALL THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EWD AND SHOULD KICKOFF ADDITION CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE E ON FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
WRMFNT MIGHT BE PUSHED OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WITH BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH
THE REGION WARM SECTORED. USED A BLEND OF ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
PUTS HIGHS ON THU IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING...NOW PUSHING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. THE LATEST
HI-RES MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON EXACTLY HOW TO HANDLE
THIS...RANGING FROM QUICKLY WEAKENING PCPN BY MID MORNING...TO
HANGING ON TO PCPN WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. JUST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THINK PCPN SHOULD HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAFS SO WILL PLAY THEM ACCORDINGLY. AFTER THAT...WILL
BANK ON A BIT OF A LATE MORNING LULL IN THE PCPN AND CUT THINGS
OFF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH THAT. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT IS SAGGING DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW REMNANTS OF
ONGOING PCPN WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT. IF CURRENT CLOUDS AND
PCPN ARE ABLE DISSIPATE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO GET SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST AND WILL COVER THAT THREAT WITH JUST A VCTS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AS WE START TO GET SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...THINK WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

INZ050-KYZ100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-071>074-080>082-
088-250915-
WAYNE-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
506 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070-077>079-250915-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-BUTLER-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
506 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THESE STORMS
DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. THIS WOULD HELP PRODUCE HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 90S. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1112 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ANSONIA                 40.21N 84.64W
07/24/2012                   DARKE              OH   PUBLIC

            TREE DWON ON STATE ROUTE 49 SOUTH OF STATE ROUTE 47.

1052 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E GREENVILLE          40.10N 84.61W
07/24/2012                   DARKE              OH   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 36 EAST OF GREENVILLE

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              40.10N 84.62W
07/24/2012                   DARKE              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TSTM WND GST     KRID RICHMOND APT       39.76N 84.84W
07/24/2012  M52 MPH          WAYNE              IN   AWOS

&&

SFH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1124 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FARRINGTON              40.11N 84.23W
07/24/2012                   MIAMI              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1129 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE RICHMOND          39.86N 84.87W
07/24/2012                   WAYNE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON SR 227 AT WEISS ROAD

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1134 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EATON                   39.75N 84.63W
07/24/2012                   PREBLE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

SNYDER