Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
101 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A COMPLEX OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CEN
KS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES....MAINLY TREKKING ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR KHUT TO NEAR KAAO TO KCNU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SO PLAN ON
GOING WITH PREVAILING -RA AND VCTS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN/KHUT TAFS AS
THIS COMPLEX MOVES ALONG...BUT EXPECT CEILINGS/VSBYS TO REMAINS
VFR.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SOME VCTS FOR KCNU AS WELL AFTER 20Z.  THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AS THE
LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH CLEARING SKIES...BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

UPDATE...

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SRN KS AT THIS
TIME...EXITING ALL BUT SOUTHEAST KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOME COOLER/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS SEEING SOME
GUSTY POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES OUT OF ERN CO
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MID LEVEL LIFT
INCREASING...AS THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK
ACCOMPANIES THIS IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA.  ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF
THIS INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCE TO THE WEST OF ICT AND ACROSS CEN
KS...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...AS THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE INCREASES CONVERGENCE FOR SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS.

WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THIS SHOWER CHANCE TO END BY AROUND 00Z/SAT AS
THIS IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA INTO MO.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RUN WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...STARTING TO GET MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE LEE CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS MAY
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO RUN
WITH AN ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR KHUT TO NEAR KMHK AND
CONTINUES TO PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS THROUGH
KICT BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NW KS. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A COUPLE HOURS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE NORTH WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135. THESE STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST A FEW HOURS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN
AN AREA OF 315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER
18-20Z WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR/ML CAPE PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A SECONDARY CONCERN
WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25-30
KNOTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LOW LVL CAA/3-6
HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL COEXIST
BRIEFLY. DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR SETTLING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE IN THE LOW 50S BUT A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY-MONDAY. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MAINTAINED LOW POPS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WHILE TRENDING
TEMPERATURES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  51  82  54 /  90  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      78  49  81  50 / 100   0   0   0
NEWTON          80  49  81  53 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        85  49  80  51 /  90  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  51  81  54 /  80  20   0   0
RUSSELL         73  47  82  49 / 100   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      73  47  81  50 /  90   0   0   0
SALINA          75  49  83  51 / 100   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       77  48  81  52 / 100   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     93  52  80  54 /  80  40   0   0
CHANUTE         90  49  78  51 /  80  30   0   0
IOLA            89  49  78  53 /  80  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    92  50  79  52 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ067>069-082-
083-091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO CLIMB INTO THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             2 S DOWNTOWN WICHITA    37.66N 97.34W
09/07/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE AMOUNT OF PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. BUT ALSO A FEW
            QUARTER SIZE AT PAWNEE AND SENECA.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     INDEPENDENCE            37.23N 95.71W
09/07/2012  M64.00 MPH       MONTGOMERY         KS   AWOS

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
09/07/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 MILES NORTH OF MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             2 SE EAST WICHITA       37.66N 97.23W
09/07/2012  E1.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL, BUT A FEW GOLFBALL SIZE AT
            LINCOLN AND OLIVER.

&&

BDK

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