Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY EVENING
OVER SOUTHEAST KS...COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-LATE WEEK.

STRONG/DEEP LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID/UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ACTIVITY IS NOW
ENCOUNTERING GREATER INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST KS...ALLOWING
ACTIVITY TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...ALSO BEING AIDED BY STRONG
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MAIN THREATS WILL BE 60-70 MPH WINDS AND
HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
INTO MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...SUNNY
SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SEEMS REASONABLE
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER CHILLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND NORMAL LOWS ARE
IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS GFS/ECMWF
PROGRESS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST AND STALL IT ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO LOW
90S NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A COMPLEX OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CEN
KS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES....MAINLY TREKKING ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR KHUT TO NEAR KAAO TO KCNU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SO PLAN ON
GOING WITH PREVAILING -RA AND VCTS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN/KHUT TAFS AS
THIS COMPLEX MOVES ALONG...BUT EXPECT CEILINGS/VSBYS TO REMAINS
VFR.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SOME VCTS FOR KCNU AS WELL AFTER 20Z.  THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AS THE
LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH CLEARING SKIES...BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    52  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          50  81  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        50  80  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  81  53  85 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  81  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       49  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     53  80  51  85 /  40   0   0   0
CHANUTE         50  78  51  82 /  30   0   0   0
IOLA            50  78  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  79  51  84 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ067>069-082-
083-091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO CLIMB INTO THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ADK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             1 S EAST WICHITA        37.67N 97.26W
09/07/2012  E1.50 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT HARRY AND ROCK ROAD.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E AUGUSTA             37.69N 96.94W
09/07/2012  E65 MPH          BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     EDNA                    37.06N 95.36W
09/07/2012  E60.00 MPH       LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALTAMONT                37.19N 95.29W
09/07/2012  E60 MPH          LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ