Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THEN COOLER TEMPS FOR THU/FRI.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
A RATHER COMPLICATED SEVERE THREAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AXIS OF UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY IS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM KDDC TO KGLD. JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS
AXIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT OVER SW NEB.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE FOR A POTENTIAL ONE-
TWO PUNCH OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

EXPECT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY
INTO CEN KS...AS THIS AREA BECOMES UNCAPPED. BULK SHEAR OF 60 KTS
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR SUGGESTS THAT SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SBCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG. ONCE THE
SUPERCELLS GET GOING...PREVAILING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE FIRST THREAT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
CEN KS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN/CEN KS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...PRODUCING A POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS IT TURNS INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS.  COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL BE KEY TO HOW STRONG THE DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
WITH THIS CONVECTION. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AND GOOD SOAKING RAINS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AS IT
DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THU-FRI:
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY...AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PROBABLY BE EITHER
MOVING STRAIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO WILL HOLD ONTO
SOME MORNING POPS IN ERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR THU-FRI WILL BE THE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THU AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KS AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
STILL MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA.  COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN KS AS WELL WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT
THINK MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTHEAST KS.

A WEAK MID LEVEL FEATURE LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY FRI
AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.  THIS LOOKS TO
INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT DROPS SOUTH...WITH 305-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING.  NOT SURE IF MOST OF THIS WILL BE VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES ACROSS AS LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY...BUT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP IN FOR THIS CHANCE.

SAT-SUN:
RETURN SFC FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SAT INTO SUN...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOME UNCERTAINLY ON POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...AS GFS TRYS TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS....WITH THIS CONVECTION PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE AREA BOTH
SAT INTO SUN.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES OR INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE SFC FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT...WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AFFECTING THIS SOMEWHAT.  BUT CURRENT
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SOME DIURNAL STORM CHANCES FOR MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAINTAINED VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA WITH VCTS
MENTIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD MORNING. ALTHOUGH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CIGS MAY
BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  71  50  74 /  70  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      56  71  49  75 /  70  10  10  20
NEWTON          56  68  48  72 /  70  10  10  20
ELDORADO        58  70  48  73 /  70  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  73  49  75 /  70  10  10  20
RUSSELL         52  70  48  77 /  70  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      53  71  49  78 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          55  71  48  75 /  70  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       55  69  49  74 /  70  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     64  73  50  73 /  70  30  10  20
CHANUTE         61  70  48  73 /  70  30  10  20
IOLA            61  68  48  73 /  70  30  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    63  72  49  72 /  70  30  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
218 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-311930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
218 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HOISINGTON TO ELDORADO TO SEDAN WILL HAVE
A CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. IN THESE LOCATIONS
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER
HAIL ALONG WITH 70 MPH WINDS. IN ADDITION A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED...HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ADK/LAWSON/MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1039 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             2 S CALDWELL            37.01N 97.61W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SUMNER             KS   STORM CHASER

1101 PM     HAIL             1 SW PARK CITY          37.78N 97.34W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

1109 PM     HAIL             VALLEY CENTER           37.84N 97.37W
05/29/2012  E0.88 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

1116 PM     HAIL             PARK CITY               37.80N 97.32W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1117 PM     HAIL             LINCOLNVILLE            38.49N 96.96W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1120 PM     HAIL             KECHI                   37.80N 97.28W
05/29/2012  E0.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ032-033-302115-
LINCOLN-RUSSELL-
343 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 341 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 7
MILES SOUTH OF SYLVAN GROVE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELLSWORTH...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9800 3887 9842 3887 9848 3885 9849
      3872 9897 3910 9903 3914 9872 3914 9871
      3914 9850 3918 9849 3923 9817 3923 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 255DEG 21KT 3892 9841

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