Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TS AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT SCATTERED TS ACROSS AREA. ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE OCCURRING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. HRRR HAS THIS CONVECTION PUSHING EAST OUT OF AREA AROUND
09-10Z. MODEL SIGNALS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING AN MCS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KS...THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WED PM. THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK BEHIND THIS MCS.
THEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

UPDATE...

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES. WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG/SOUTH OF IT AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH...THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS IN OKLAHOMA. OTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ERUPT OVER NORTHWESTERN KS TOWARD DAYBREAK
IN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A WEAKER LEAD WAVE
IN THE ROCKIES THAT PRECEDES THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. FEEL THIS INITIAL WEAKER WAVE WILL RESULT IN AN
MCS THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARD: STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION THIS EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54 AFFECTING ICT AND CNU TAFS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST IN OKLAHOMA...A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVE AS WEAK
IMPULSE TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY...AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WITH THIS FEATURE ANYTIME FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME
AND PROVIDE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN LATER TAFS.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON WED.  THEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THU AND FRI.

TONIGHT:
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES JUST TO THE
SW OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NW OK BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CU FIELD INCREASING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...WITH WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN ROW OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CEN KS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THIS SRN ROW OF COUNTIES...AS
THIS AREA IS BECOMING UNCAPPED...SO ANY INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING SW OF KICT. IF A STORM CAN
DEVELOP INTO SOUTH CEN KS...BULK SHEAR OF 50 KTS AND MLCAPE REACHING
1500-2000 J/KG...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO WITH A DOMINATE SUPERCELL...AS DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO CHANCE INITIALLY...BEFORE STORMS
EVOLVE INTO A PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OK.

WED-WED NIGHT:
A MORE COMPLICATED SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL OCCUR ON WED...AS THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER CEN KS...
WITH WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING EARLY ON WED.
THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WED JUST TO THE NW OF CEN KS AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NW KS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT SEVERE
CHANCES FOR WED AFTN...AS THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND BECOME MORE SFC BASED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO BETTER SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING MORE ROBUST BULK SHEAR VALUES ON WED AFTN...AS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM/WRF SHOWING BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 60-65 KTS. THIS ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AGAIN SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KHUT-KICT-KPPF LINE. WITH THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SPC MODERATE RISK LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR WED AFTN. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT MODERATE RISK MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST.

INITIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION ON WED AFTN CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE HP
SUPERCELLS GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES...BUT COULD
SEE THIS CONVECTION CONGEAL OR BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD THIS CONVECTION BECOMING A
PROGRESSIVE DAMAGING WIND MCS ACROSS SRN KS BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

THU-SAT:
WILL SEE MOST OF THE WED NIGHT CONVECTION PUSH SOUTH INTO OK EARLY
ON THU.  BUT MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER NEB IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ERN KS FOR THU AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD A FEW DIURNAL STORMS ACROSS ERN KS FOR
THU...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THIS AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THU WILL
BE COOLER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FOR THU AFTN/EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO
FRI.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SAT...AS SFC FLOW QUICKLY COMES
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER FLOW STAYS OUT OF THE NW.
THIS RETURN FLOW COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME WARM
ADVECTION/ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT.  SO
WILL ADD A POP FOR THIS CHANCE.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO SFC TEMPS AGAIN CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR SUN
THRU TUE.

WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FOR SUN THRU TUE...AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 21Z. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE BUT DUE TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE WILL LIMIT KHUT AND
KICT OT VCTS BETWEEN 21Z-02Z. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IMPACTING KRSL POSSIBLE KHUT AND KICT
TOWARD MORNING ON WED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  81  59  72 /  40  60  70  10
HUTCHINSON      59  79  56  71 /  20  60  60  10
NEWTON          58  79  55  70 /  20  50  70  10
ELDORADO        59  79  57  71 /  30  40  70  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  83  62  73 /  60  60  70  20
RUSSELL         56  76  53  68 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      56  77  55  70 /  20  60  60  10
SALINA          57  77  57  68 /  20  40  60  10
MCPHERSON       58  78  55  70 /  20  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  82  63  74 /  50  30  70  40
CHANUTE         60  79  62  72 /  30  20  70  50
IOLA            59  78  61  70 /  30  20  70  50
PARSONS-KPPF    62  81  63  73 /  50  30  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-310300-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITH DIME SIZE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
RUSSELL TO MCPHERSON TO CHANUTE...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS...BUT STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             VALLEY CENTER           37.84N 97.37W
05/29/2012  E0.88 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     HAIL             PARK CITY               37.80N 97.32W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1118 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     HAIL             LINCOLNVILLE            38.49N 96.96W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             KECHI                   37.80N 97.28W
05/29/2012  E0.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

KSZ069-083-300500-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 1128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF NORTHEAST WICHITA...
OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9734 3791 9727 3791 9716 3794 9715
      3798 9699 3778 9691 3772 9729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 255DEG 21KT 3783 9720

BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
121 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ094-300645-
ELK-
121 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELK COUNTY...

AT 116 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOWARD...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF EUREKA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 9640 3760 9639 3761 9612 3760 9596
      3741 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 272DEG 21KT 3753 9622

LAWSON